Tag Archives: swpc

Trio of Flares Launch CME that May produce Aurora on Nov 4, 2021

Northern Lights Now – Another CME launched from the Sun and the updated forecast calls for more potential periods of G1 storming on Nov 4.

There have now been three significant flares with associated CMEs across the previous two days. The first two are from Active Region 2887 (the one that produced the X-class flare and storming over Halloween weekend) which is now rotating around the west limb. The third, launched on Nov 2, was from AR 2891 which is currently center disk. This likely means we’ll receive a direct hit.

The CMEs traveling out from these eruptions will likely interact and make for a somewhat complicated forecast. That said, SWPC has updated the Forecast and is now showing a period of Activity late on 11/3 and early on 11/4 then another period of G1 storming later in the Nov 4 period. It is very possible the forecast is conservative given the position of the third eruption. Here is the most recent forecast:

G1 storming now predicted on Nov 3 and Nov 4
G1 storming now predicted on Nov 3 and Nov 4

Here is an annotated two day composite of LASCO showing the three eruptions that are responsible for the activity predicted in this forecast.

Happy hunting!

Complex Storm System Forecast to bring G1 Aurora

Northern Lights Now – A complex set of flares from AR 2887 have launched CMEs that mean there is a good chance for Aurora on Nov 4 and Nov 5. SWPC has issued a G1 Geomagnetic Storm watch. These storms we’re complex, and we expect this forecast to be revised.

Here is the projected timeline for solar activity:

The initial predictions are showing G1 storming in the first half of Nov 4, 2021
The initial predictions are showing G1 storming in the first half of Nov 4, 2021

Edit: Later, another flare launched from AR2891 from near center disk. The CME launched from this eruption will almost definitely arrive at Earth, and will likely interact with the already launched CME. The forecast will be updated soon.

Happy Hunting

Halloween Aurora 2021 – Live Blog – Day 2

Northern Lights Now – Thank you for visiting the Aurora live blog for the 2021 Halloween Aurora. Check back frequently as there are new updates for the current storm. This is the second day of the live blog. Find the previous day here

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NLN Live Blog Update – Saturday, October 31, 12:30 UTC (08:30 EST 10/31)
Live blog time: 14 Hours 15 mins

The CME arrived overnight while many on the East Coast US and Europe were asleep at about 09:30 GMT. The timing should be good for aurora hunters in Australia and New Zealand, Russia and possible northern Europe. When it arrived, the orientation was right for Aurora with a period of Bz North.

The CME arrived at about 09:30 GMT and was oriented with Bz South
The CME arrived at about 09:30 GMT and was oriented with Bz South

Given the data, Aurora Hunters should expect the KP to slowly increase. It is currently in the KP=4 range. If Bz stays negative, there should be G1 level storming soon.

NLN Live Blog Update – Saturday, October 31, 02:30 UTC (00:30 EST 10/31)
Live blog time: 6 Hours 15 mins

Happy Halloween to our EST hunters! The expected solar storm has not arrived yet. Solar wind data looks completely nominal. In fact, if you looked at only the solar wind data with 400 km/s and pretty flat data for Proton density, Bt and Bz over the last hour, you’d have no idea there was the potential for a storm.

Nominal data in the last hour at DSCOVR
Nominal data in the last hour at DSCOVR

But don’t give up yet. A quick peak at the EPAM at ACE shows that readings are still increasing. This often happens in advance of the arrival of a ICME shock. Note that they have been slowly rising since the X-class flare on the 29th. This isn’t over yet!