Tag Archives: swpc

Mid-August Northern Lights – Live Blog Aug 17-20 2022 – Part 1

Northern Lights Now – Occassionally when there is a strong aurora predicted, and we feel there is a good chance for an evolving storm, we’ll start up the live blog! As the storm transpires over the next couple days keep checking back. We will talk about the source of the storm, give updates on it’s progression, and hopefully share some of the photos our followers share with us. If you’d like to have your photo featured please tag NLN on Twitter

Update 3
August 19, 3:45 UTC

Reminent activity from the initial CME impact shock, and the high speed solar winds from the coronal hole have produced intermitent activity over the last 6-9 hours. With Bz variable, there hasn’t been a long duraction aurora event yet. Even with the Bz uncooperative, the strong winds and high proton density in the tail end of the first CME have been enough to produce occasional G1 conditions. Some aurora photographers have gotten lucky and captured a show. If you have a great aurora photo and would like us to share it in the live blog, tag it with #NLNLiveBlog

More recent activity
More recent activity

Update 2
August 18, 09:00 UTC

Fairly quiet since the last update. Solar wind speeds remain high around 575km/s as a result of the Coronal Hole High Speed Stream. Most forcasters are still anticipating the arrival of the next CME. When it arrives, the data on the solar wind page will show a jump in values. Keep an eye on the Bz, if it dives south at that point (negative), we should be in for a good show.

Update 1
August 18, 04:30 UTC

The first round of activity brought a period G2 activity across two three hours periods. The timing of this storm meant that mostly aurora hunters in northern Europe got to see a show. Viewers in North America and Au/NZ will need to wait until later in this storm.

graph shows two period of G2 level aurora activity
First Activity of the Aug 2022 storm brings two periods of G2 storming

Background

A series of Six storms on the surface of the Sun launched solar plasma and other CME material towards earth between August 13 and August 16. As these arrive they will activate the magnetosphere and produce aurora. SWPC is predicting a long period of G1 storming, with chances for KP=7+ over this period.

Three days of G1-G3 storming predicted
Three days of G1-G3 storming predicted

Happy Hunting

Trio of Flares Launch CME that May produce Aurora on Nov 4, 2021

Northern Lights Now – Another CME launched from the Sun and the updated forecast calls for more potential periods of G1 storming on Nov 4.

There have now been three significant flares with associated CMEs across the previous two days. The first two are from Active Region 2887 (the one that produced the X-class flare and storming over Halloween weekend) which is now rotating around the west limb. The third, launched on Nov 2, was from AR 2891 which is currently center disk. This likely means we’ll receive a direct hit.

The CMEs traveling out from these eruptions will likely interact and make for a somewhat complicated forecast. That said, SWPC has updated the Forecast and is now showing a period of Activity late on 11/3 and early on 11/4 then another period of G1 storming later in the Nov 4 period. It is very possible the forecast is conservative given the position of the third eruption. Here is the most recent forecast:

G1 storming now predicted on Nov 3 and Nov 4
G1 storming now predicted on Nov 3 and Nov 4

Here is an annotated two day composite of LASCO showing the three eruptions that are responsible for the activity predicted in this forecast.

Happy hunting!

Complex Storm System Forecast to bring G1 Aurora

Northern Lights Now – A complex set of flares from AR 2887 have launched CMEs that mean there is a good chance for Aurora on Nov 4 and Nov 5. SWPC has issued a G1 Geomagnetic Storm watch. These storms we’re complex, and we expect this forecast to be revised.

Here is the projected timeline for solar activity:

The initial predictions are showing G1 storming in the first half of Nov 4, 2021
The initial predictions are showing G1 storming in the first half of Nov 4, 2021

Edit: Later, another flare launched from AR2891 from near center disk. The CME launched from this eruption will almost definitely arrive at Earth, and will likely interact with the already launched CME. The forecast will be updated soon.

Happy Hunting