Northern Lights Now – A complex set of flares and CMEs has set up a period of potential aurora activity on Nov 3rd through 5th. The official forecast is calling for a period of G1 storming late on the third for 6-9 hours, then another period late on the 4th potentially into the 5th. As such, the Aurora liveblog is being activated
NLN Live Blog Update – Thursday, November 4, 02:30 UTC (07:00 EST 11/4)
Live blog time: 19 Hours 00 mins
Can’t get over this show. It’s spent the last few hours directly above our heads. @TamithaSkov @NWSduluth @AuroraNotify @NorthLightAlert #aurora #AuroraBorealis #NorthernLights #savethebwca #boundarywaters #minnesota pic.twitter.com/ltPMaLLamU
— alexander falconer (@alexfalconrt) November 4, 2021
Aurora hunters are being treated to a show with G3 aurora in high latitudes. Every time there is a solar storm expected, there is uncertainty in how it will be oriented when it arrives. This storm arrived with nearly perfect orientation for aurora sightings. As of now, there has been six hours of strong (-10nT) south oriented Bz, 15+ hours of solar wind speeds over 700 km/s, 1+ hours of solar wind speeds over 800 km/s, nearly 15 hours of Bt over 15 nT. With data like that, it isn’t surprising Earth has been experiencing G3 and possibly even G4 conditions.
The ovation model, which estimates where it’s likely to have active aurora, is showing a wide swath of red across almost all of Canada, Alaska, and Russia. In the southern hemisphere, Australia and New Zealand have been treated to a show. This storm is a worldwide event.
NLN Live Blog Update – Thursday, November 4, 02:30 UTC (22:30 EST 11/3)
Live blog time: 5 Hours 30 mins
Bz has been rolling in and out of south orientation, solar wind speeds have been holding above 750 km/s and the BT has remained strong. This has brought strong sub-storms during the Bz south periods. KP reached 7 (the highest it has been so far this solar cycle) and there have been aurora reports coming in from Maine, Vermont, Eastern Canada, Scotland and more.
At the moment, it appears Bz may be rotating back to the south. If this continues aurora hunters could see another round of aurora over the next 2-3 hours. There is also the possibility that we could see another shock arrival in the next 6 hours or so. If this happens we could have an abrupt end to the show, or it could intensify. Most likely, given the strength of the solar wind we are in the main portion of the storm and have less than 12 hours left of this storm.
NLN Live Blog Update – Wednesday, November 3, 22:10 UTC (18:10 EST 11/3)
Live blog time: 1 Hours 10 mins
The Aurora pictures have started!
— Cogie's Aurora's (@cogie_s) November 3, 2021
NLN Live Blog Update – Wednesday, November 3, 21:20 UTC (17:20 EST 11/3)
Live blog time: 0 Hours 20 mins
After a momentary outage, Solar wind data is back online. With winds over 700 km/s and Bz strongly south, there is likely already G1 storming occuring
NLN Live Blog Update – Wednesday, November 3, 21:00 UTC (17:00 EST 11/3)
Live blog time: 0 Hours 0 mins
The first sign of the CMEs arrival hit DSCOVR at about 19:20 UTC, with a stronger impact around 20:00. Initial readings are showing a strong south Bz component and high solar wind speeds above 650 km/s. This is already an indication that this storm could yield better aurora production that the previous storm from Halloween weekend. This data means it is likely that we will reach G1 storming within about 90 minutes.
About an hour after the storm starting impacting, a glitch and set of errors has made DSCOVR blind to the solar wind. Aurora hunters will need to fall back on ACE as a source for data until DSCOVR comes back on line.