Northern Lights Now – There have been several notable eruptions on the Sun since November 4th. As of now, models are not indicating G1 storming, but with the combination of events, and models predicting KP=4, it is not out of the question that there may be some G1 storming between 11/8 and 11/9.
Early on the 4th a filament erupted from the SW portion of the disk. There is a clear CME lift off, but it appears to be headed mostly to the South and West of the Earth-Sun line. Here is an animatedGIF showing about 4 hours in AIA 304 with showing the filament erupting
About 6 hours later, a small B2.2 flare happened around an unnumbered region in the NW quadrant. Just after this low level eruption, a wave is visible traveling southward through the corona. Dimming was also seen in automated CME detection during this flare. Often, dimming is indicative of a launching CME, but there was no clear sign of a CME on LASCO. If this flare did launch a CME towards Earth, it will be a stealth CME. This flare was optical only and did not register on NLN’s Solar Flare Browsing page. In this video, the first half shows the full disk, the second half zooms in on the actual flare.
Finally, a pair of filaments erupted early on the 5th. The first, bigger one launched from the NW quadrant of the Solar disk from a location just north of the area of the B2.2 flare. This filament also showed what looked to be a launching CME on AIA 304, however most of the material looks to be traveling North and West. The other filament erupted on the East of the disk at nearly the same time and is much smaller. They are both visible in this AIA 193 imagery, the second is just barely visible.
Northern Lights Now – The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWCP) has posted a G1 geomagnetic storm watch indicating probable KP>5 for February 14th and 15th 2016. This means aurora borealis may be visible in mid latitudes. The timing indicates that Europe and North America will be best positioned for a show Valentine’s Day Evening. As always with storm watches like this, the actual storming period could arrive up to 6 hours before or after the predicted arrival. Now is the time to start monitoring developments in space weather and cloudcover forecasts to know if the northern lights will be visible to you and planning your night our aurora hunting.
Update: Feb 13: NLN is now posting live updates for this storm.
As of the time the watch was posted, Earth is expected to see KP levels at 5 or above from 21:00GMT on 2/14 through 06:00GMT on 2/15 (4:00m-1:00am EST). There may be up to 12 hours past the arrival of the storm where KP may still be in the KP=4+ range. The forecast may be updated as more data comes in, so keep an eye on the NLN 3-day AuroraCast page for updates over the next couple days. As of this post, here is the current AuroraCast:
This storm is caused by a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that erupted from the surface of the Sun during a C8.92 flare on February 11th. You can see that eruption in the northwest (upper left) quadrant of the solar disk in this timelapse captured from the Solar Dynamic Observatory Satellite. SDO is a camera trained on the Sun that takes thousands of high resolution images per day in multiple different wavelengths. As the Flare erupts over the course of almost 90 minutes, you can see a dark area moving up and away from the eruption location. This dark area, several times the size of Earth, is the CME. It appears as dimming because the ejected plasma is cooler than the Sun and located between the Sun and the camera on the SDO sattelite.
Normally, CME’s take 2-3 days to arrive at Earth after an eruption. The eruption is moving much slower and will take 3-4 days to arrive. That could mean that it will arrive with lower solar wind speed, which would dampen chances for a great show. But it also means that as it arrives, it may put on a longer show. Stay tuned for updates!
On January 14, a filament eruption on the south-center earth-facing disk launched what appears to be a slow moving Coronal Mass Ejection. Estimated velocity of the CME indicate it may take as much as 4 to 4.5 days before it arrives at Earth. When it does, it’s possible there will be elevated KP. Due to the slow speed of the the CME, it is unlikely that it will produce significant aurora, but it could increase the KP to the highest it has been since the January 5th aurora.
Here’s an animated GIF of the solar storm launching. This eruption was so slow, that we had to speed up the images to four times the normal speed we show solar events