Tag Archives: animated GIF

Valentine’s Day G1 Aurora Watch Posted By SWPC

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Northern Lights Now – The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWCP) has posted a G1 geomagnetic storm watch indicating probable KP>5 for February 14th and 15th 2016. This means aurora borealis may be visible in mid latitudes. The timing indicates that Europe and North America will be best positioned for a show Valentine’s Day Evening. As always with storm watches like this, the actual storming period could arrive up to 6 hours before or after the predicted arrival. Now is the time to start monitoring developments in space weather and cloudcover forecasts to know if the northern lights will be visible to you and planning your night our aurora hunting.

Update: Feb 13: NLN is now posting live updates for this storm.

As of the time the watch was posted, Earth is expected to see KP levels at 5 or above from 21:00GMT on 2/14 through 06:00GMT on 2/15 (4:00m-1:00am EST). There may be up to 12 hours past the arrival of the storm where KP may still be in the KP=4+ range. The forecast may be updated as more data comes in, so keep an eye on the NLN 3-day AuroraCast page for updates over the next couple days. As of this post, here is the current AuroraCast:

NLN 3-day Aurora cast for days 2 and 3 shows KP=5 possible on February 14 and 15, 2016
NLN 3-day Aurora cast for days 2 and 3 shows KP=5 possible on February 14 and 15, 2016

This storm is caused by a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that erupted from the surface of the Sun during a C8.92 flare on February 11th. You can see that eruption in the northwest (upper left) quadrant of the solar disk in this timelapse captured from the Solar Dynamic Observatory Satellite. SDO is a camera trained on the Sun that takes thousands of high resolution images per day in multiple different wavelengths. As the Flare erupts over the course of almost 90 minutes, you can see a dark area moving up and away from the eruption location. This dark area, several times the size of Earth, is the CME. It appears as dimming because the ejected plasma is cooler than the Sun and located between the Sun and the camera on the SDO sattelite.

C8.92 Solar flare launches from Active Region 2497 on 2/11. The CME may produce Aurora on 2/14 and 2/15

Normally, CME’s take 2-3 days to arrive at Earth after an eruption. The eruption is moving much slower and will take 3-4 days to arrive. That could mean that it will arrive with lower solar wind speed, which would dampen chances for a great show. But it also means that as it arrives, it may put on a longer show. Stay tuned for updates!

Happy Hunting

Slow moving CME from Filament Eruption may arrive at Earth Jan 18

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On January 14, a filament eruption on the south-center earth-facing disk launched what appears to be a slow moving Coronal Mass Ejection. Estimated velocity of the CME indicate it may take as much as 4 to 4.5 days before it arrives at Earth. When it does, it’s possible there will be elevated KP. Due to the slow speed of the the CME, it is unlikely that it will produce significant aurora, but it could increase the KP to the highest it has been since the January 5th aurora.

Here’s an animated GIF of the solar storm launching. This eruption was so slow, that we had to speed up the images to four times the normal speed we show solar events

Slow moving CME launches from filament in the south-center Solar disk on 1/14
Slow moving CME launches from filament in the south-center Solar disk on 1/14

Happy Hunting