Category Archives: Alerts

Trio of Flares Launch CME that May produce Aurora on Nov 4, 2021

Northern Lights Now – Another CME launched from the Sun and the updated forecast calls for more potential periods of G1 storming on Nov 4.

There have now been three significant flares with associated CMEs across the previous two days. The first two are from Active Region 2887 (the one that produced the X-class flare and storming over Halloween weekend) which is now rotating around the west limb. The third, launched on Nov 2, was from AR 2891 which is currently center disk. This likely means we’ll receive a direct hit.

The CMEs traveling out from these eruptions will likely interact and make for a somewhat complicated forecast. That said, SWPC has updated the Forecast and is now showing a period of Activity late on 11/3 and early on 11/4 then another period of G1 storming later in the Nov 4 period. It is very possible the forecast is conservative given the position of the third eruption. Here is the most recent forecast:

G1 storming now predicted on Nov 3 and Nov 4
G1 storming now predicted on Nov 3 and Nov 4

Here is an annotated two day composite of LASCO showing the three eruptions that are responsible for the activity predicted in this forecast.

Happy hunting!

Complex Storm System Forecast to bring G1 Aurora

Northern Lights Now – A complex set of flares from AR 2887 have launched CMEs that mean there is a good chance for Aurora on Nov 4 and Nov 5. SWPC has issued a G1 Geomagnetic Storm watch. These storms we’re complex, and we expect this forecast to be revised.

Here is the projected timeline for solar activity:

The initial predictions are showing G1 storming in the first half of Nov 4, 2021
The initial predictions are showing G1 storming in the first half of Nov 4, 2021

Edit: Later, another flare launched from AR2891 from near center disk. The CME launched from this eruption will almost definitely arrive at Earth, and will likely interact with the already launched CME. The forecast will be updated soon.

Happy Hunting

Big Halloween Aurora Expected October 30, 2021

Northern Lights Now – A large x-class flare released a CME towards Earth on October 28, 2021. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth Midday Oct 30 GMT. SWPC has issued a G3 storm watch. If the CME arrives with Bz south orientation, it’s likely to bring 24-36 hours of KP=6 and KP=7 storming.

G2 and G3 storming expected over Halloween weekend
G2 and G3 storming expected over Halloween weekend

Here’s a quick video of the flare that launched the CME

As the storm arrives, keep an eye on the Solar Wind data page. When the ICME hits, expect the solar wind speed to jump, and density and total Bt to increase. When the shock front arrives, watch the Bz closely. If it drops deeply negative, there is a very strong likelihood that there will be an aurora display. If the storm starts with a north (positive) orientation, aurora hunters will need to wait for the second phase of the arrival and the maximum potential level decreases to G2.

Happy Hunting!