Northern Lights Now – SWPC has posted a G2 storm watch for this weekend. The arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream should bring a couple periods of active aurora. Here’s the expected timeline.
Northern Lights Now – There is a good chance for aurora activity later this week as twin CMEs were launch from a flare and a filament eruption launched at the interaction point of a pair of active regions on the Sun’s surface. The activity was nearly centered in the Earth strike-zone, the region that solar activity is most likely two impact Earth. The CMEs should arrive in quick succession on Wednesday and Thursday. SWPC has posted a two day long G1 geomagnetic storm watch, and noted “a chance for G2 (Moderate) conditions.” This means if the storms are oriented correctly, activity levels could reach KP=5 or higher.
Long acting Active Regions
Space forecasters have been watching the active regions responsible for the watch since April 11 during the last solar rotation. Between April 11 and April 18 AR 2738 maintained a stable beta orientation and minimal flaring as it traversed the disk. Just as 2738 was rotating off the Western limb, AR 2739 was developed and was numbered slightly to the East. These two active regions persisted and launched eruptions as they tracked across the far side of the Sun between April 19 and May 3.
One April 30, LASCO captured the signature of a large CME off NE limb from the region that had been AR 2738. This was an indication that there was a chance the region had held together and that it might continue flaring as it rotated into view. On May 3, AR 2740 (old 2738) was renumbered as it came into view on the East Limb. AR 2941 (old AR 2739) was numbered on May 6.
More updates to follow,
Northern Lights Now – It’s looking like the weekend of March 23-24, 2019 will be good for Aurora hunters! A C4 flare on the Sun launched March 20th sent CME directly towards Earth. As it arrives, aurora conditions should become active. In response, SWPC has issued a G2 geomagnetic storm watch.
This story will be updated, come back soon.
Here’s a timelapse showing the Solar Storm erupting off the surface of the Sun from SDO. You will see it at roughly 11:30 coming from the active region further to the west (rightmost).
You can find the most up-to-date forecast for geomagnetic activity on the NLN 3-day forecast page. As of the time of the initial post, activity is predicted to increase the second half of March 23 and continue into the 24th.