Halloween Aurora 2021 – Live Blog – Day 2

Northern Lights Now – Thank you for visiting the Aurora live blog for the 2021 Halloween Aurora. Check back frequently as there are new updates for the current storm. This is the second day of the live blog. Find the previous day here

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NLN Live Blog Update – Saturday, October 31, 12:30 UTC (08:30 EST 10/31)
Live blog time: 14 Hours 15 mins

The CME arrived overnight while many on the East Coast US and Europe were asleep at about 09:30 GMT. The timing should be good for aurora hunters in Australia and New Zealand, Russia and possible northern Europe. When it arrived, the orientation was right for Aurora with a period of Bz North.

The CME arrived at about 09:30 GMT and was oriented with Bz South
The CME arrived at about 09:30 GMT and was oriented with Bz South

Given the data, Aurora Hunters should expect the KP to slowly increase. It is currently in the KP=4 range. If Bz stays negative, there should be G1 level storming soon.

NLN Live Blog Update – Saturday, October 31, 02:30 UTC (00:30 EST 10/31)
Live blog time: 6 Hours 15 mins

Happy Halloween to our EST hunters! The expected solar storm has not arrived yet. Solar wind data looks completely nominal. In fact, if you looked at only the solar wind data with 400 km/s and pretty flat data for Proton density, Bt and Bz over the last hour, you’d have no idea there was the potential for a storm.

Nominal data in the last hour at DSCOVR
Nominal data in the last hour at DSCOVR

But don’t give up yet. A quick peak at the EPAM at ACE shows that readings are still increasing. This often happens in advance of the arrival of a ICME shock. Note that they have been slowly rising since the X-class flare on the 29th. This isn’t over yet!