Northern Lights Now – In an update to NLN’s previous post, SWPC has upgrade the strom watch on October 14 from G1 to G2. This means KP values 5.67 and above are possible.
Here is the updated notifications timeline (we added the purple exclamations!)
And the NLN AuroraCast for days one and two showing likely time periods to expect storming conditions:
Don’t forget two valuable tools to use during the storm to track activity. The Live KP charts show the predicted KP over the next 30-60 minutes and you can use the DSCOVR solar wind data to get an idea for what the live KP model may predict soon (hint: more, taller bars mean likely higher KP).
Northern Lights Now – A small filament eruption on October 9 released a CME that is approaching Earth. It should arrive late on the 13th or early on the 14th. This CME plus a high speed stream will combine to induce aurora storming that may reach G1 levels. The means that KP is predicted to be at or above 5.00. Here is the current predicted timing from SWPC:
This storm is lower confidence that some other recent storms. The filament eruption was at a very northern solar latitude. Normally an eruption at this latitude would be well north of the Earth-Sun line. This one may also be off the Earth Sun line. At around the same time as the filament eruption, shown below, there was also a back-sided eruption. The partial halo CME that was visible from the back-sided eruption may have confused the models as they project the speed and path of the earth-facing CME. This will be a “wait and see” type storm. Here’s that filament eruption in AIA 193 SDO imagery: