Northern Lights Now – SWPC has posted a G2 storm watch for August 2nd and a G1 storm watch for August 3rd. NLN will keep a live blog of the storm as it unfolds here.
Update 8/4 2:30 UTC (10:30pm EST)
A quick recap: The big winners for aurora photography in this storm were the Northern states west of the Great Lakes and Canada, New Zealand and Tasmania. Denmark was also in the sweet spot at the very beginning of the storm when the initial CME arrived. There were a couple pictures of faint pillars in ME, NH and VT as well.
Solar wind never quite reached the high levels expected in the prediction. The helps explain why the storming started a little later than predicted also – if the wind is moving slower, it takes longer to travel from the Sun to Earth. In the end there were four periods of G1 storming recorded.
Thanks for following along for this storm!
Update 8/3 16:30 UTC (12:30pm EST)
The storm seem be dying down. Solar wind speeds have picked up, but they did not reach the predicted 600+ km/s. Here’s a create timelapse video from overnight from Robert Snache (@spirithands)
Update 8/3 11:00 UTC (7:00am EST)
So many wonderful pictures overnight. There were 3 periods of G1 recorded, and it appears there is a 4th happening now. There is an outside chance that the current period will reach G2. Here are a couple tweet with aurora pictures the we’ve seen overnight:
Back of cam:
— Joe Moore (@wxjoe) August 3, 2016
Angel Brise finds some gems on webcams:
— Angel Brise' (@AngelBrise67) August 3, 2016
— Notanee Bourassa (@DJHardwired) August 3, 2016
— Neil Zeller (@Neil_Zee) August 3, 2016
Update 8/3 04:45 UTC (12:45am EST)
Starting about an hour ago, Bz dipped back south. Bt is still very strong, so this may be enough to produce some more pillars in the mid-latitudes. Aurora hunters will still probably need long exposures to get a good view. KP=5.33 (G1) in 20 minutes. Here’s a look at the boulder KP 3-hour averages so far – notice that storming didn’t technically reach G2 levels during the last substorm:
Update 8/2 23:00 UTC (7:00pm EST)
G2 storming is now predicted by the Wing-KP model. KP=6 shortly! This is almost exactly when the initial forecasts indicated we might see G2 storming. The strong solar wind hasn’t really picked up yet – wind speeds have only just touched 450 km/s.
Bz shifted to the north, so NLN is expecting this storm to be short lived. Good luck. Hopefully there will be more later tonight
Update 8/2 22:30 UTC (6:30pm EST)
First aurora picture of the night! This tweet shows a photo from Denmark by Twitter follower @ADphotography24
— AD photography (@ADphotography24) August 2, 2016
Update 8/2 21:45 UTC (5:45pm EST)
Around 8:00am UTC Bz made a decisive shift to the south. This should be good for aurora hunters and we expect to see some pictures coming in soon. We also expect the wing-KP models to reflect this aurora within the next 2-3 hrs.
— Northern Lights Now (@NorthLightAlert) August 2, 2016
Update 8/2 06:30 UPC (2:30am EST)
The first hints of the expected solar storm from the filament eruption appear to be arriving. Solar wind, density and Bt/Bz all reflected the shocks impact. The shock was weaker than expected, but also a little earlier than expected. We’re not really expecting any aurora yet, still plenty of hours ahead for a show.