Northern Lights Now – Several coronal holes, some flare activity and a couple CMEs may cause active aurora conditions over the next five days. Thus far, none of the CMEs appear to be Earth directed, but the sheer number of coronal holes and disturbed areas increases the likelihood that there may be an aurora show. Each of the coronal holes will produce a period of higher wind speed at Earth 2-4 days after it is directed towards Earth. Each of the disturbances that produce a CME has a chance to bring ripples in the solar wind and produce periods of negative Bz and then aurora. Here’s a look at all the current coronal holes:
Even if there is a strong aurora, it will be hard for most Northern Hemisphere viewers to get a chance to see it. Now, around the time of the summer solstice, the days are long and the nights are short. Many northern areas have zero chance of seeing a show because it will be light all day. Even further south, the nights are short, reducing the chances that the timing of an active period will line up with night time. Add to that the moon – it is full but waning over the next several days.
Our Southern hemisphere readers should have a decent shot, as they are in the depth of winter. Keep your fingers crossed for them!
UPDATE 2:00am 6/22 UTC (10PM EST 6/21)
There was indeed one brief substorm this evening that pushed the KP into G1 range! Almost immediately afterward the Bz shifted back to the north, so it is unlikely to continue: