One the Sun
Flaring activity increased today with three M-class flares including a long-duration M3.72 flare from AR 2443 that will impact geomagnetic activity at Earth this weekend. Departing AR 2445 produced an M2 and and M1 flare as it weakened and lost it’s magnetic complexity. Neither flare produced an earth-directed CME. Other regions on the sun were quiet.
The M-class flare from AR2443 was responsible for imagery that will be catnip to aurora hunters. The flare happened almost exactly at the center of the disk, which means that almost any CME will be directed towards Earth. LASCO images showed a clear partial halo CME. Analysis is still ongoing to determine the speed of the ejecta to estimate when it will arrive at Earth. Initial esitmates and WSA-Enlil model runs indicate that it will likely be geoeffective on Saturday Nov 7. The 3-day forecast page will be updated to show potential timing with tomorrow morning’s update (around 7:30am), so check back then.
Aurora and elevated KP continued for most of the day with 5 three-hour periods experiencing G1 storming. Bz was variable, but occiassionally weakly south for long enough for additional 20 minute spurts of activity. Here are the recorded KP values:
There were a few really good aurora pictures, but the timing, duration, and weakness of the storm proved frustrating for many hunters. If you were lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time to see aurora, you are amoung the lucky few. Some of our favorite tweets:
— David McColm (@triwhistler) November 3, 2015
— NASASunEarth (@NASASunEarth) November 4, 2015
— Jake Stehli (@eljakeo30) November 3, 2015