NLN Aurora Brief – November 2, 2015

Aurora Brief Number 14 of 14 (though, there may be bonus since we’re in the middle of a storm!)
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Today on the Sun:

A G3 (KP=7) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect! All eyes are on the solar wind data. The increased solar wind and solar wind density that will result from the coronal hole that was pointed towards Earth on Friday should arrive any moment. When it does, the wind speed may increase to above 800 km/s from the current 330 km/s. Density and Bt should also increase. If those play out as expected, the next metric to watch is Bz – the north/south component of the magnetic field. It needs to be pointed south, negative Bz values, for aurora to take place. About 30-40 minutes after the Bz turns south, the KP will start to rise.

NLN infographic of predicted Max KP Nov. 2 and 3
NLN infographic of predicted Max KP Nov. 2 and 3

You can monitor the KP live on the NLN live KP dashboard or on the chart to the right. As the KP is higher, the latitude it is possible to see the Aurora is lower. In Australia and New Zealand, this means Higher KP indicates northern lights should be visible further North. In the southern hemisphere, KP=7 means aurora can potentially be seen in Melbourne, AU or Wellington, NZ. For northern hemisphere hunters, KP=7 means aurora can potentially be seen as far south as Salt Lake City, UT, Richmond, VA, Brussels (Belgium) and Warsaw (Poland). On the live KP page, there is the ovation model, a convenient map showing the estimates of the chances that Aurora are visible at the moment in different locations around the northern hemisphere.

On the Sun AR 2443 continued to produce C-class flaring. It grew in area, but lost it’s delta spot while growing. Chances of M-class flares are slightly lower today than yesterday.

Don’t forget: The Last Minute Aurora Viewing Preparation Guide is available if you are planning on going out

Happy Hunting