NLN Aurora Brief – October 24, 2015

Aurora Brief Number 5 of 14
Previous Brief: NLN Aurora Briefs – October 23, 2015
Next Brief: NLN Aurora Briefs – October 25, 2015

Today on the Sun:

Very quiet on the surface of the Sun today, just a small set of B-class flares. It appears the long duration flare on Wednesday rearranged the magnetic fields and reduced the potential for flares. All active regions have decayed, losing spots, size and magnetic complexity. AR2436 remains the largest and most complex region, but is now classified as Beta. The chances for big flares are low again today.

Don’t let the quiet sun fool you! SWPC has posted a G1 geomagnetic storm watch for today and tomorrow with G1 Aurora predicted for late on the 24th. The CME from the long duration flare should arrive this evening providing European and North American aurora hunters a good chance for northern lights. EPAM is showing a consistent rise in protons indicating the CME is getting closer:

EPAM shows rise in protons
EPAM shows protons measured at ACE are rising in advance of the CME arrival

When the CME arrives, expect the KP to increase as the Earth’s magnetic fields respond. As KP goes up, the aurora will be visible at lower latitudes. You can monitor the KP live on our currnet live KP charts page. In the US, clear skies are expected on the eastern-most tip of Maine and through the middle of the country. In this map, the best viewing will be in the deep blue areas.

Cloudcover map for the time of the CME arrival
Cloudcover map for the time of the CME arrival

This day in 2003:

Active regions 484 and 486 continue to be large complex beta-gamma-delta regions producing strong flares. 484 produced and M1 flare, and 486 produced an M7 flare. The previous day’s X-class flares produced a large fast CME, but is was directed to the East (ahead) of Earth and did not produce aurora. The CME shock from the flares two days earlier arrived and produced a period severe storming. Many people saw the aurora, this would foreshadow much stronger stormed for just a week later

Happy Hunting!