Tag Archives: timelapse

Space Weather to Watch October 21-27

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Northern Lights Now – After somewhat quiet space weather since the last round of aurora October 9-13, there are several features to watch again. A coronal hole is pointed towards Earth and has prompted a G1 Geomagnetic Storm watch for October 24. There is a filament to the west of the coronal hole that looks like it could lift off soon and there is an active region rotating on to the east limb that was responsible for a large backsided CME just a couple days ago. Let’s take them one by one

Annotated AIA 211 image from SDO shows coronal hole, filament and new active region.
Annotated AIA 211 image from SDO shows coronal hole, filament and new active region.

Coronal Hole

The large dark area in the center of the imange is a large coronal hole pointed towards Earth right now. It has increased in size since the last rotation and is likely to bring high speed solar wind starting in three days. When it arrives there is a good chance KP values will cross into the G1 storming range. SWPC has posted a geomagnetic storm watch for Tuesday October 24.

SWPC notifications timeline shows G1 storming expected Oct. 24
SWPC notifications timeline shows G1 storming expected Oct. 24

Filament

Just to the north and west of the coronal hole there is a filament that is looking like it may lift off soon. If it does lift off, there is a chance it could produce a CME. This is worth monitoring. It is easiest to see the filament in AIA 304 as in the animated gif here:

AnimatedGIF shows the filament to the north west of the coronal hole in AIA 304
AnimatedGIF shows the filament to the north west of the coronal hole in AIA 304

New Active Region

Potentially the most promising area of interest is the active region rotating into view on the southeast limb. This is the return of AR2674 (Aug-Sept rotation) and AR 2682 (Sept-Oct rotation) after it traversed the backside of the Sun. It should be numbered AR2684 or AR2685 later this evening.

This AR was responsible for CMEs early on Oct 18 and on October 21. The CME yesterday was from an M1.1 flare that happened just over the eastern limb. This region has shown activity over the last several days that hints that it is magnetically unstable. It seems likely that it will continue to producing flaring and possibly more CMEs.

Here is the LASCO imagery showing those two CMEs

Two CMEs appear on LASCO imagery on Oct 18 and Oct 21 as a result of activity from the active region on the eastern limb
Two CMEs appear on LASCO imagery on Oct 18 and Oct 21 as a result of activity from the active region on the eastern limb

Happy Hunting!

X Class Flare from the West Limb May Bring Aurora Sept 13

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Northern Lights Now – Active Region 2673 may have rotated around the limb, but today it proved it wasn’t quite done influencing Earth’s magnetosphere. An X8.28 flare and associated CME launched from the region on Sunday October 10. The CME is so wide that NASA models are suggesting Earth will get a glancing blow on Sept 13.

X8.28 Flare graphic from Northern Lights Now flare page
X8.28 Flare graphic from Northern Lights Now flare page

Watch the flare erupt in AIA 304:

Huge X-class Flare erupts from AR2673 from around the limb
Huge X-class Flare erupts from AR2673 from around the limb

The flare released energetic particles that saturated the LASCO imagery on SOHO. In this loop, see the CME launching, then a “blizzard” as the sensors pick up the high energy particles associated with the eruption.

CME and high energy particle "blizzard" in LASCO
CME and high energy particle “blizzard” in LASCO

Check back soon as we have more information about when and how this will impact Earth and when to expect aurora

Happy Hunting

Sept 6-10 Aurora G3 Storm 2017 – NLN Live Blog pt3

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Northern Lights Now – A G3 storm watch is in effect for September 6 and 7 thanks to a solar storm launched from an Earth-directed solar eruption at active region 2673. Aurora hunters are expecting a mid-latitude display. Northern Lights Now will keep you up to date on the latest information in this live blog. We’ll be updating regularly, so come back often.

This is part 3 of 3, check out the other links:
Live Blog Sept 6-10 Part 1
Live Blog Sept 6-10 Part 2

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 9, 04:45 UTC (00:45 EST 9/9)
Live blog time: 72h 45m

Whew! What a storm. There were two distinct periods of G4 storming in the last 36 hours. The first was timed well for North American aurora hunters and the second for our Europeans followers. This was a treat, especially for this late in the solar cycle.

Two periods of G4 storming in the last 36 hours. The storm is now settling down.
Two periods of G4 storming in the last 36 hours. The storm is now settling down.

The core of both CMEs has now passed and the magnetosphere should start to settle down. There still may be a couple more G1/G2 substorms in the next 24 hours, but the event is coming to an end. Thank you all for reading along and sharing your photos. Please follow NLN on Twitter and on Facebook and sign up for our email list to learn about the next storm when it comes.

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 8, 22:00 UTC (16:00 EST 9/8)
Live blog time: 68h 00m

Bz continues to be south and wingKP is indicating G4 storming is going on again now. IF you have clear dark skies go out aurora hunting!

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 8, 15:15 UTC (11:15 EST 9/8)
Live blog time: 63h 15m

In the last update we mentioned that it looks like another CME core is coming through. It is here now and G4 storming is happening again. Tell your friends to go out and look at the sky if it’s dark and clear! Please share this info and help your friends get a chance to see the aurora for themselves.

Second round of G4 aurora is expected to start in about 30 minutes.
Second round of G4 aurora is expected to start in about 30 minutes.

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 8, 12:15 UTC (08:15 EST 9/8)
Live blog time: 60h 15m

What a night! There were two periods of G4 storming before the Bz shifted as Earth exited the core of CME. Aurora hunters from Europe to Central North America got a show.

From the Finnish Lapland:

From Edinburgh Scotland

Michigan:

And holy cow look at the color in this panoramic from Scott Rock in Ontario

But wait there’s more! In the last update we mentioned the possibility that there may be another CME core arriving soon. About 45 minutes ago it did as shown in the solar wind data. With Bz this strong south, we are now expecting another round of at least G3 storming over the next 1-4 hours.

Bz shows we should expect another round of aurora coming midday Sept 8 UTC
Bz shows we should expect another round of aurora coming midday Sept 8 UTC

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 8, 05:30 UTC (01:30 EST 9/8)
Live blog time: 53h 30m

There are interesting questions about the future geomagnetic activity of this storm. The IP shocks from both the M5.5 and the X9.33 flares have now arrived. In a regular solar storm, the shock arrives and is followed soon after by the core or body of the CME. In this case, the cores of both CMEs have interacted. This is a very complex, and low confidence, forecast. The bottom line is: We might see another round of G3 storming as the body of the X9.33 CME arrives, or the body of the CME may miss Earth and it might be over. Best thing to do is watch the Bz which, by the way, just flopped back to negative. If Bz stays negative, our west coast US followers and Australia/New Zealand followers may get a show tonight.

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 8, 02:45 UTC (22:45 EST 9/7)
Live blog time: 50h 45m

Epic Aurora going on! G4 storming is logged and continues. Bz shifted back to the south, so it may slow for a bit now. Check out this small sampling of images coming in: