Tag Archives: swpc

G1-G2-G1 Storm Watch for Oct 24 through October 26

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Northern Lights Now – High speed wind from the coronal hole mentioned in the previous NLN post is expected to arrive sometime on October 24 and should induce G1 and G2 storm conditions through the 26th. SWPC has issued storm watches for all three days with G1 watches on the 24th and 26th and a G2 storm watch on October 25. This means KP levels could reach 5.67 or more.

SWPC notifications timeline shows three days of storm watches posted
SWPC notifications timeline shows three days of storm watches posted

Models are predicting an extended period of elevated solar winds reaching as high as 650km/s for all three days. The initial winds will arrive with a CIR (co-rotating interaction Region) where densities are higher and the magnetic fields are more complex. This means you can monitor the progress of the arriving wind stream – it will show up as proton densities as measured at L1 by DSCOVR will rise. Once Earth is in the body of the high speed solar wind stream, density decreases and winds increase.

Current forecasts show geomagnetic activity reaching G1 levels (KP=4.67 and above) the second half of Oct 24, then reaching G2 (KP=5.67 and above) on the first part of Oct 25. Activity should slowly decline over the following 36 hours, but there may be spike of activity if the magnetic fields line up just right.

NLN AuroraCast shows three days of G1 and G2 activity from October 24-26
NLN AuroraCast shows three days of G1 and G2 activity from October 24-26

As an update to the features in that previous post, the filament did lift off, but was subsequently reabsorbed, so it did not generate a CME. The active regions rotating into view on the East limb seem to have lost their magnetic complexity. Space Weather forecasters are not expecting they will be active flare producers in the next several days.

Happy Hunting!

Sept 28 Aurora Storm Watch Upgraded to G2

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Northern Lights Now – Update from yesterday’s post – SWPC has extended the geomagnetic storm watch into September 28 and is now calling for G2 storming. G2 storming means that KP values could exceed 5.67, strong enough for mid-latitudes to get a display of aurora.

Red on the NLN AuroraCast Clock shows to expect G2 storming conditions Early Aug 28
Red on the NLN AuroraCast Clock shows to expect G2 storming conditions Early Aug 28

The Moon is will be just shy of 1st quarter, so viewing conditions should be favorable.

Happy Hunting

G1 Aurora Storm Watch Posted For September 27

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Northern Lights Now – The second, larger, coronal hole mentioned in the previous NLN post is now pointed directly towards Earth and has prompted the SWPC to issue a new G1 geomagnetic storm watch for Wednesday September 27.

Transequitorial Coronal Hole is directed toward Earth on September 24, 2017
Transequitorial Coronal Hole is directed toward Earth on September 24, 2017

High speed solar winds are expected to arrive in the second half of Wednesday and May persist through Friday. It would not be surprising to see the storm watch extended another day. G2 storming is also possible during this storm. Stay tuned!

Happy Hunting