Northern Lights Now – On July 16 NLN noted that there was a delta spot on active region 2567. The delta spot didn’t last long, but the active region interacted with AR 2565 to produce several C-class flares over the next 24-36 hours. Early on the 17th, between 5:39 and 9:27 UTC, there was a long duration C1 flare between the two with a period of coronal dimming. Coronal dimming is often a sign that a CME was launched – sure enough a large, but slow CME was launched AND the region was in the Earth strike zone. It get’s better, there is coronal hole pointed towards Earth that could enhance the incoming solar storm. Social media is abuzz with the prospect we might get a solar storm and an aurora show.
Not so fast! While the CME had an asymmetric halo signature, it was quite faint. It’s likely there was not a lot of material ejected. Subsequent WSA-Enlil model runs show a small impact from a slow moving CME early on July 21. The model indicate such a diffuse impact that SWPC has chosen not to post a storm watch. The max predicted KP is 4. In addition to that, the moon will be nearly full as a waning gibbous, so at best there will be an hour two of true dark just after sunset.
Bottom line – There is definitely a higher chance for aurora late on the 20th and early on the 21st than at other times. If the orientation of the CME is favorable, or if it is pushed faster than the models suggest by the high speed wind, we could easily see a period of G1 storming. This is a wait-and-see type event, have your cameras charged and ready just in case.
Northern Lights Now – Solar activity has been low over the last month, but a large coronal hole combined with some activity on it’s periphery is prompting SWPC to issue a G1 geomagnetic storm watch for July 7.
UPDATE 1:30AM GMT 7/7 (9:30PM EST July 6)
SWPC has updated today’s watch to include 7/8. We expected this was possible based on the size and location of the coronal hole. Keep an eye on the solar wind speed. Once it increases watch the Bz. If it points south, there’s a good chance for a show. The current predicted times for the storm are late on 7/7 and early on 7/8
There have only been about 20 sunspots recorded in June, and none so far in July. Without sunspots, solar flares and eruptions are less likely. This leave coronal holes and filament eruptions as the remaining potential sources for northern lights activity. Currently there is a large coronal hole pointed towards Earth:
This coronal hole should start to impact Earth midday July 6 with enhanced solar wind speeds through Early on July 7. The official forecast from SWPC shows only one period of G1 activity around 18:00GMT, but there’s reason to believe this could actually product more activity than that. First, these forecasts often miss by 6-12 hours, so the active period could happen any time during the day on the 6th or early on the 7th. Second, there was a minor filament eruption to the west of the coronal hole on the 4th of July. Check out the video linked in @haloCME’s post.
Northern Lights Now – The large coronal hole that was responsible for the May 6-8 Mother’s Day G3 aurora storm is pointed toward earth again and has potential to create aurora this weekend. SWPC has posted a G2 storm watch for June 4, with a period of predicted G1 and G2 (KP=5, KP6 respectively) storming late in the UTC day. It is likely this watch will be extended to June 5 tomorrow. This means good aurora conditions are possible on Friday and Saturday evenings – particularly in the southern hemisphere where it is winter and the nights are longer.
The initial estimates for the timing of the arrival of the solar wind are often off by several hours, but the current estimates show two periods of G1 storming starting around 1500 GMT, then a period of G2 storming starting in the 2100 GMT timeperiod. This is good timing for European and North American aurora chasers, but NLN is expecting the storm to last long enough that it will be good for the evening of June 5 in New Zealand and Southern Australia. As of June 1, this is the NLN aurora clock for the day covered in the watch period: