Northern Lights Now – A large coronal hole that crosses the Solar equator will produce conditions conducive to aurora Thursday through Saturday this week. The expected enhanced solar winds could reach 700km/s and as a result SWPC has issued a three day G1 geomagnetic storm watch. This means KP values are likely to be enhanced and there is a good chance they will exceed KP=4.67.
This coronal hole is the return of a system that produced G1 storming on previous rotations in early October and November. Looking at the form and location of the coronal hole over the last four rotations, it is clear that it is a little farther north and bigger for this rotation. Each rotation takes about 27 days. Past experience has shown that the more of the coronal hole that passes through the center of the earth strike zone, the portion of the Solar disk pointed towards Earth, the longer the period of enhanced solar winds.
Close NLN readers and aurora hunters will recognize that this is a different coronal hole than the large system that has been producing storming in the second half of the month September, October and November. That system appeared to have been falling losing definition in the previous rotation, so when it rotates into view over the next couple weeks, watch it to see if it has regained organization or has continued to dissapate.
For this storm, the current expect timing of G1 storming conditions is just at the beginning of each UTC day during the watch period. The timing on these specific forecasts is difficult to predict but is often a good indicator of when it is worth keeping an eye on DSCOVR Solar wind data and the current KP.
Northern Lights Now – There have been several notable eruptions on the Sun since November 4th. As of now, models are not indicating G1 storming, but with the combination of events, and models predicting KP=4, it is not out of the question that there may be some G1 storming between 11/8 and 11/9.
Early on the 4th a filament erupted from the SW portion of the disk. There is a clear CME lift off, but it appears to be headed mostly to the South and West of the Earth-Sun line. Here is an animatedGIF showing about 4 hours in AIA 304 with showing the filament erupting
About 6 hours later, a small B2.2 flare happened around an unnumbered region in the NW quadrant. Just after this low level eruption, a wave is visible traveling southward through the corona. Dimming was also seen in automated CME detection during this flare. Often, dimming is indicative of a launching CME, but there was no clear sign of a CME on LASCO. If this flare did launch a CME towards Earth, it will be a stealth CME. This flare was optical only and did not register on NLN’s Solar Flare Browsing page. In this video, the first half shows the full disk, the second half zooms in on the actual flare.
Finally, a pair of filaments erupted early on the 5th. The first, bigger one launched from the NW quadrant of the Solar disk from a location just north of the area of the B2.2 flare. This filament also showed what looked to be a launching CME on AIA 304, however most of the material looks to be traveling North and West. The other filament erupted on the East of the disk at nearly the same time and is much smaller. They are both visible in this AIA 193 imagery, the second is just barely visible.
Northern Lights Now – There is a 72 hour G2 storm watch in effect from October 24 through October 27, NLN will be live blogging the storm here. Please check back often
Update #10: 0300 UTC 10/29/2016 (midnight EST 10/29/2016)
Earth has been under the influence of that large coronal hole for over 4 days. The last several days have been less exciting than the first day and a half, but over the last 3 hours, activity has picked back up. G1 storming conditions have started up again. Here are the current recorded KP values from Boulder:
The storming is showing up vibrantly on the Tromso all-sky cam. It’s clear there, the moon is nearly new, and the Aurora is filling the sky!
It’s possible this storming could continue several hours. Keep an eye on the KP.
Update #9: 2300 UTC 10/26/2016 (7:00pm EST 10/26/2016)
As evening sets in across the East Coast, the KP drops. KP=4 in the short term forecast. It could go back up any time.
Update #8: 1700 UTC 10/26/2016 (1:00pm EST 10/26/2016)
An two hour period of Bz south from about 14:45 to 16:45UTC pushed storming levels back to G2 (KP=5.67 and above) since the last update. Conditions continue to be favorable for northern lights and will likely to be for the next 12-24 hours at least. Here’s a snapshot of the current recorded KP from boulder, where the most recent period of G2 is visible.
If you are planning on going out tonight, you might want to check out NLN’s handy Last Minute Aurora Viewing Preparation Guide, there are some great tips for what to do before you go out and while you are out. Please bundle up! It’s cold across much of the northern viewing spots and you may be standing still for a long time.
Update #7: 1400 UTC 10/26/2016 (10:00am EST 10/26/2016)
Solar wind speeds have now been elevated for over 24 hours. The big winners from last night’s aurora hunt seem to have been in Europe with some terrific images coming from Denmark.
Update #6: 0345 UTC 10/26/2016 (11:45pm EST 10/25/2016)
Last update for tonight. Solar wind is has exceeded 800 km/s and is in the “very high” range. It does appear that wingKP continues to over estimate the actual KP. There is still enough activity that high latitude clear locations should get a show. Keep an eye on the Bz, if it goes back south for another extended period, there could be a new substorm at any moment.
Seven games is a long series. There is plenty of time left for a comeback.
Update #5: 0200 UTC 10/26/2016 (10:00pm EST 10/25/2016)
Let’s go Cubs! It’s the 6th inning and the Indians are leading 3-0.
The solar storm is continuing. Bz has been variable for most of 10/25 UTC, but there were some periods where there were extended periods with negative Bz. In the spirit of baseball, here’s a random statistic: Of 1440 total minutes in the day, Bz was only negative for 458 of them.
Update #4: 2130 UTC 10/25/2016 (5:30pm EST 10/25/2016)
It is now dark in Europe and reports of Northern Lights are rolling in. WingKP predictions have been consistently in the 5.67-7.67 range for the last several hours. It’s important to note that when the wind speed is high and there is a particularly strong ground reading (like the G3 mentioned in the last update) that the wingKP model can overestimate. Even with the overestimate, there is still very strong active storming ongoing now.
About an hour ago, Bz shifted to into a new and solidly southward orientation. It is evident in the graph below starting at about 20:45 UTC. This should give a very nice substorm to Aurora hunters out under the lights for the 45-70 minutes (click the image for full screen).
Here are some Photos from Twitter. Thanks for sharing!
Update #3: 1630 UTC 10/25/2016 (12:30pm EST 10/25/2016)
Exciting times! SWPC at Boulder reported a period of G3 storming over the last three hours. Current KP predictions are showing consistently G1-G2 storming. Solar wind conditions are favorable to aurora hunters. Make sure your camera batteries are charged, and check out your cloud cover forecast.
Update #2: 1300 UTC 10/25/2016 (9:00am EST 10/25/2016)
Solar wind speed has increased to over 600 km/s, and there have been periods of Bz south overnight. The first wave of G1 storming of this storm is predicted in the next 50 minutes or so, with an expected KP of 5.33. There were a couple Twitter reports of Aurora overnight, here’s one from Corinne in Northern Wisconsin
Would you like your photo shared in this live blog? Share it on Twitter and be sure to tag @NorthLightAlert
Update #1: 0300 UTC 10/25/2016 (11:00pm EST 10/24/2016)
One full day into the watch period and the high solar winds are running a little late compared to the forecast. Late on 10/24, winds started to increase to 450 km/s. Over the next 6-8 hours they could increase to as much as 700 km/s. There haven’t been any KP=5 active periods yet, but there has been enough activity for some sporatic reports of aurora in Finland and Iceland to trickle in. Stay tuned, there is likely more to come. Take a moment to appreciate how large this coronal hole has become, in the AIA 211 image in encompasses most of the visible solar disk