Tag Archives: SDO

G1 Aurora Storm Watch Posted For September 27

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Northern Lights Now – The second, larger, coronal hole mentioned in the previous NLN post is now pointed directly towards Earth and has prompted the SWPC to issue a new G1 geomagnetic storm watch for Wednesday September 27.

Transequitorial Coronal Hole is directed toward Earth on September 24, 2017
Transequitorial Coronal Hole is directed toward Earth on September 24, 2017

High speed solar winds are expected to arrive in the second half of Wednesday and May persist through Friday. It would not be surprising to see the storm watch extended another day. G2 storming is also possible during this storm. Stay tuned!

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Late September Features To Watch On The Sun

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Northern Lights Now – It has been two weeks since the X-class flare that active region 2673 released as it rotated out of view on the western limb. In that time space weather and aurora activity on Earth has been slowly waning. As that active region rotates back into view it will be renumbered, probably as 2682, and space weather forecasters will be watching to find out how it’s magnetic structure has changed. In addition to the returning active region, there are two coronal holes that may impact Earth’s Aurora activity over the next 7-10 days.

Coronal Holes

A small coronal hole was pointed towards Earth on Sept 21, 2017. Notice in the AIA 211 image below that the majority of the coronal hole is to the south of the solar equator. This time of year, the earth is actually about 7 degrees north of the solar equator. The size of this hole and it’s location to Earth’s south decreases the magnitude of anticipated impact. There is a slight chance for KP4 or KP5 on Sept 24 as the high speed wind from the hole travels near Earth, but SWPC has not issued a geomagnetic watch

Southern Coronal Hole pointed towards Earth on Sept 21
Southern Coronal Hole pointed towards Earth on Sept 21

A second, bigger, coronal hole is approaching the Earth strike zone and will likely have a bigger impact on Earth’s geomagnetic activity September 27th to 30th. This coronal is in the northern hemisphere and has a history of producing high solar wind speeds at Earth on it’s previous rotation. The hole has developed a southern “arm” that crosses the Solar equator. The hole is now “transequitorial,” another indication that Earth will likely be in the high speed wind stream. It seems likely this will prompt a G1 or possibly G2 storm watch later this week.

Another Coronal Hole is approaching the Earth Strike Zone. This one looks more likely to impact Earth's Space Weather
Another Coronal Hole is approaching the Earth Strike Zone. This one looks more likely to impact Earth’s Space Weather

The Return of AR 2673

The large complex active region that blasted 3 X-class flares and numerous M-class flares two weeks ago is completing it’s rotation around the back side of the Sun. While it was on the opposite side of the Sun, LASCO detected at least one major CME from it, but it his been less active over the last several days. As it rotates into view, forecasted will get their first glimpse of whether it has maintained it’s magnetic complexity.

We won’t know until 24-48 hours from now, but if it is still complex, there could be additional M-class flares over the next week. Stay tuned to find out!

Old AR 2673 is rotating into view
Old AR 2673 is rotating into view

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X Class Flare from the West Limb May Bring Aurora Sept 13

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Northern Lights Now – Active Region 2673 may have rotated around the limb, but today it proved it wasn’t quite done influencing Earth’s magnetosphere. An X8.28 flare and associated CME launched from the region on Sunday October 10. The CME is so wide that NASA models are suggesting Earth will get a glancing blow on Sept 13.

X8.28 Flare graphic from Northern Lights Now flare page
X8.28 Flare graphic from Northern Lights Now flare page

Watch the flare erupt in AIA 304:

Huge X-class Flare erupts from AR2673 from around the limb
Huge X-class Flare erupts from AR2673 from around the limb

The flare released energetic particles that saturated the LASCO imagery on SOHO. In this loop, see the CME launching, then a “blizzard” as the sensors pick up the high energy particles associated with the eruption.

CME and high energy particle "blizzard" in LASCO
CME and high energy particle “blizzard” in LASCO

Check back soon as we have more information about when and how this will impact Earth and when to expect aurora

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