Tag Archives: M Class Flare

Mid July Aurora Storm 2017 – NLN Live Blog

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Northern Lights Now – NLN will be live blogging the predicted solar storm this weekend. As of Saturday afternoon at the start of the live blog, SWPC is predicting G2 storming to start midday on July 16 UTC and last at least through July 17. NLN will be posting about this storm as it unfolds.

Thanks for hunting with NLN

BONUS – NLN Live Blog Update – Tuesday July 18, 03:20 UTC (23:20 EST 7/17)
Live blog time: BONUS ROUND

The bonus substorm is over. Time for weary aurora hunters to get some sleep.

BONUS – NLN Live Blog Update – Tuesday July 18, 02:20 UTC (22:20 EST 7/17)
Live blog time: BONUS ROUND

Space weather is still hard to predict. Solar wind data is indicating that there may be another substorm on it’s way in. Watch the Bz on the Solar Wind Page. If it stays negative, it may be worth going out in about 40min to and hour.

Bz and Wind Speed indicate the potential for a bonus sub-storm
Bz and Wind Speed indicate the potential for a bonus sub-storm

NLN Live Blog Update – Monday July 17, 17:15 UTC (12:30 EST 7/17)
Live blog time: 43h 00m

What a terrific storm. Lots of people got to see aurora in person but the big winners seemed to be in the Pacific Northwest, central and western Canada and New Zealand. The timing of the storm wasn’t great for Europe and the Northeast (except for the few diehards who persevered despite the Moon at 3am!). Overall, the storm was pretty close to the predictions – it arrived a little early but well within the standard margin of error. The predicted intensity was also close, although a little aggresive, with predictions calling for 4 periods of G2 (there were 2) and 4 periods of G1 (there were 3).

Bz has shifted North and wind speeds and density have already started declining. There’s a slight chance for another substorm as the magnetosphere is still sensitive, but this storm is basically over. Thanks for all your reports! Stay tuned for a full recap later this week.

Here are the recorded KP values from this storm (as always subject to revision, but probably won’t change):

Recap of Mid-July recorded KP values as reported by SWPC in Boulder CO
Recap of Mid-July recorded KP values as reported by SWPC in Boulder CO

NLN Live Blog Update – Monday July 17, 13:15 UTC (08:15 EST 7/17)
Live blog time: 38h 45m

Since the last update, there was one more good aurora substorm. Aurora hunters from Detroit and further west were rewarded with some really nice views early this morning. There were northern lights reports coming in from Montana, British Columbia, Mt Adam’s in Washington, and Alberta early this morning. Watch this timelapse from Detroit!

And this Beauty from Alberta

The NLN site seems to be holding up now. We made some emergency changes last nigth – and will be looking into what we can do to sure it up for the next storm. Thank you for sticking with us!

NLN Live Blog Update – Monday July 17, 05:15 UTC (00:15 EST 7/17)
Live blog time: 30h 45m

The aurora seems to be subsiding. Bz levels have been between -5 and -1 nT for the last several hours. While still negative this limits the Aurora potential to around G1 storming. There should still be plenty of opportunity to see aurora for hunters in Canada and across the northern states.

Sites down: The wing KP predictions from SWPC are still unavailable and there is no clear timeline for them being back up. SWPC is continuing to produce three-hour reports of recorded KP. Over the last three hours KP has been recorded at KP=5.00 (G1 storming). In adddition to the WingKP data being unavailable. NLN has had intermittent availability over the last several hours. High traffic has made it difficult for our servers to handle all incoming requests. Please be patient and try again soon if you are having difficulty reaching our site. Today has been our single busiest day in history – thank you for sticking with us!

NLN Live Blog Update – Sunday July 16, 20:00 UTC (16:00 EST)
Live blog time: 22h 30m

As darkness arrives in Europe the aurora is still going strong. Bz has been south, but there were a couple brief moments where it switched to a northward orientation. The variability decreases the intensity of the northern lights display. This down grades the expectations for the next 2-4 hours from G2/G3 to G1 storming with KP in the 5-6 range. That should be good enough for aurora in northern Europe once it is dark.

The SWPC wing-KP model is currently down. This is where NLN and most other aurora sites and apps get their short term KP predictions. We’re hoping SWPC gets it up and running again soon. In the meantime, you can use the ovation model found on the Short Term Prediction down? Use This! Page

Ovation model shows some decrease in aurora activity from earlier today
Ovation model shows some decrease in aurora activity from earlier today

NLN Live Blog Update – Sunday July 16, 13:15 UTC (11:15 EST)
Live blog time: 19h 30m

NLN is trying something new: join our Facebook aurora hunting event. Share with us there what you’d like to see/hear. What questions would you like NLN to answer?

NLN Live Blog Update – Sunday July 16, 13:15 UTC (09:15 EST)
Live blog time: 17h 45m

Speaking of the southern hemisphere getting a show – here’s an image of Ian Griffin in an auroraselfie this morning in New Zealand

NLN Live Blog Update – Sunday July 16, 13:00 UTC (09:00 EST)
Live blog time: 17h 30m

The storm continues to get stronger. In 50 minutes or so, the KP is expected to reach G3 levels! This is because the Bz component of the magnetic field continues to be strongly negative (-10nT or more). This is similar to the readings during the active period on May 27. For now, the timing is best for western North America and Australia/New Zealand. There is no indication yet that the activity should slow in the next 3-4 hours. European aurora hunters are left hoping the storm continues for another 8-12 hours. On the east coast, hunters should hope for another 12-16 hours of activity. Here is the current predicted KP – you can monitor the KP live on the Northern Lights Now site:

KP=6.67 predicted in just under an hour shown on the NLN live KP chart
KP=6.67 predicted in just under an hour shown on the NLN live KP chart

NLN Live Blog Update – Sunday July 16, 10:30 UTC (06:30 EST)
Live blog time: 15h 0m

The orientation of the solar storm is just right! As anticipated, the arriving solar storm is strong, but space scientists don’t have data available yet to know if the structure of the plasma cloud is right to produce aurora until it arrives. This storm is structured correctly and as a result KP is climbing and Aurora hunters are reporting success. Here is the first tweet with a northern lights picture we’ve seen tonight:

NLN Live Blog Update – Sunday July 16, 05:45 UTC (01:45 EST)
Live blog time: 8h 15m

The first indications of the arriving CME are now on display on the DSCOVR solar wind data page. The sudden increase in solar wind speed and shift in density and Bt indicate that the shock at the front of the CME has arrived at the DSCOVR satellite. The next several hours of data will be crucial in knowing if there will be a good aurora storm. Watch the Bz – if it shifts south (negative on the charts) and stays that way it means the solar storm is oriented properly to give us a show.

DSCOVR solar wind data indicates the arrival of the anticipated CME
DSCOVR solar wind data indicates the arrival of the anticipated CME

NLN Live Blog Update – Sunday July 16, 05:30 UTC (01:30 EST)
Live blog time: 8h 0m

One of the best indicators of an approaching CME is rising levels as measured by the EPAM (Electron, Proton, and Alpha-particle Monitor) instrument on ACE. Measured levels of protons increase as the CME gets closer. They peak just as the CME hits or passes Earth. When the levels increase like they are in the graph below, it is a strong indicator that the solar storm is likely to hit soon.

Rising Proton counts on the EPAM instrument indicate a CME is approaching
Rising Proton counts on the EPAM instrument indicate a CME is approaching

NLN Live Blog Update – Sunday July 16, 02:30 UTC (22:30 EST)
Live blog time: 5h 0m

The G2 storm watch has begun! While the storming isn’t expected to arrive for another 8-12 hours, forecasts are generally 6-12 hours off in either direction. If the CME is moving faster than the models anticipate, it will arrive early, if it’s slower it may not arrive until midday tomorrow. Keep your eyes on the data as activity could start at any time now. This graph from NOAA shows the storm watch as a green bar

SWPC Notifications timeline shows the G2 storm watch has begun
SWPC Notifications timeline shows the G2 storm watch has begun

NLN Live Blog Update – Sunday July 16, 23:45 UTC (19:45 EST)
Live blog time: 2h 15m

The incoming storm has the potential to bring G2 and G3 storming – but what does that mean? The G levels correspond to how strong the geomagnetic storm is. The strength is measured in Kp, a scale that goes from 0 at no activity to 9 when there is maximum activity. The higher the KP is the strong the aurora will appear and the further south they will be visible in the Northern Hemisphere and the further north they will be visible in the southern hemisphere. G2 is a reading of 5.67 on the KP scale, G3 is a reading of 6.67 on the scale. Here’s a helpful map that shows how the KP corresponds to where the lights might be visible.

Global KP boundaries map shows what KP you need to see Aurora
Global KP boundaries map shows what KP you need to see Aurora

Southern Hemisphere KP Maps
Southern Hemisphere KP Maps

NLN Live Blog Update – Sat July 15, 21:30 UTC (17:30 EST)
live blog time: 0h 0m
Here is the initial forecast for when this aurora storm will be strongest:

NLN Aurora clock shows time when Aurora may reach G1 and G2 storming
NLN Aurora clock shows time when Aurora may reach G1 and G2 storming

As always with space weather predictions there is a lot of uncertainty. The watch indicates there is the potential for G2 storming, but if the CME is oriented the wrong way as it arrives there may be minimal aurora. At the same time, if it comes it just right, there could be G3 or G4 storming that is seen as far south at Kentucky and Arizona.

Brief G2 Aurora Storm Expected Tonight – January 3

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Update 22:00UTC January 3, 2016

It appears this #CME missed Earth and we won’t be getting an Aurora show tonight. From the beginning this was low confidence forecast. The CME’s signature was well South and West of the Earth-Sun line. If it was just a bit farther to the South or West, Earth would be untouched by the shock. It seems is what has happened. There is a slim, outside chance that it may still arrive, but with each passing hour it is less likely. Here is the output from the SWPC ENLIL model (How to read the ENLIL model) showing the predicted location of the CME:

ENLIL model shows the CME mostly South and West of Earth
ENLIL model shows the CME mostly South and West of Earth

Original Post: 03:00UTC January 3, 2016

Northern Lights Now – SWPC has issued a G2 geomagnetic storm watch for Sunday, January 3rd. Space weather forecasters are expecting a brief but strong storm as the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from a long duration solar flare passes Earth. It is expected to be a glancing blow as the plasma in the CME will pass mostly to the West and South of Earth. The predicted time of arrival of this fast moving CME:

Auroracast from NLN show the SWPC forecast of G2 storming from 4am to 10AM EST
Auroracast from NLN show the SWPC forecast of G2 storming from 4am to 10AM EST

What to expect:
As the edge of the plasma cloud passes Earth, proton levels will continue to rise as displayed on the EPAM. When the shock hits, they will jump then fall. About an hour later, magnetometers on Earth will register the passage of the shock. At that time, if the Bz component is south, there may be a short period of strong aurora. This CME is predicted to be mostly South and West of Earth, and could easily be too far away from Earth to make an impact as it passes, so this is a lower-than-normal confidence forecast.

This is the flare that produced the CME:

Animated GIF of the flare that cause the CME approaching Earth
Animated GIF of the flare that cause the CME approaching Earth

If you are planning on going out hunting tonight, remember to dress warmly. When you are standing still outside at night, you should dress for weather at least 20 degree colder than what is on the thermometer. Here’s a handy last minute guide to hunting aurora.

Stay tuned next week as coronal hole #44 may prompt SWPC to issue a new geomagnetic storm watch for January 5th and/or 6th.

Coronal hole rotating into the Earth Strike zone may prompt a new geomagnetic storm watch later this week
Coronal hole rotating into the Earth Strike zone may prompt a new geomagnetic storm watch later this week

Happy Hunting.

New Years Eve Aurora Predicted – worldwide press coverage

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Northern Lights Now – The internet is abuzz with articles and blog posts about the predicted G3 aurora display for tonight and tomorrow night. It’s no surprise, a G3 storm is very strong and could mean aurora are visible as far south as Salt Lake City, UT, London, and Warsaw and as far north as Melbourne, Australia and Wellington NZ.

Here’s a running list of articles we have found talking about this ongoing storm:

Article from the Pacific Northwest in the United States:

There are several articles from this region as it is one of the few that has clear skies for the first night of the storm:

From The Seattle Times
Northern Lights may be visible in Seattle area by Jack Broom
“The best chance to see the effect may be early in the evening, before the fog sets in.”

From MyNorthwest.com
Could Seattle Catch a Glimpse of the Northern Lights” by Richard D. Oxley
“With all the city lights it would be difficult or impossible to see. You would need to get out of town,” said Terry Onsager, a physicist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.”

From Komonews.com
Northern Lights may be visible as 2015 comes to an end by Scott Sistek
“But if the storm is late and/or the fog is early, we can cross fingers that the storm lingers long enough to bring the aurora back around on Thursday night. Wouldn’t that be a sight: New Year’s Eve auroras! ”

National US and International news:

From NBCBayArea (San Francisco):
Northern Lights: Forget Fireworks, New Year’s Solar Eruption Might Be Visible in Bay Area
“In the Bay Area, skies should be clear, giving stargazers who stay up late a shot at seeing the Aurora borealis: The time to look is early Thursday morning between 2 a.m. and 6 a.m., scientists say.”

From accuweather.com Strong solar storm may bring chance to view northern lights to midwestern, northwestern US Wednesday night
“Those in the Ohio Valley and Northeast will be out of luck regardless of whether the aurora develops or not due to widespread clouds”

From the Telegraph: Solar flare hints at New Year light show
“On Monday, a powerful M1.9 class solar flare erupted from the Sun, spewing out huge amounts of charged particles. They began hitting the Earth’s atmosphere early on Wednesday morning, and the effects are expected to continue being felt into New Year’s Eve. ”

From CBC Canada:
Aurora borealis could illuminate New Year’s Eve sky across Canada
“People who want to increase their chances of seeing the lights should try to get away from light pollution, look north, and hope for clear skies.”

From The Local: Sweeden
Northern lights ‘eruption’ set to dazzle Sweden
“Although even if cloud cover does obscure the lights this week, patience will be rewarded, according to norrskensverige.com, a blog for Swedish northern lights enthusiasts.”

From the International Business Times:
New Year’s Eve Aurora Could Be Visible After Coronal Mass Ejection Hits Earth
“The CME interacts with Earth’s magnetic field, which could affect power systems, GPS and spacecraft, cause radio blackouts and create strong aurora displays. G3 geomagnetic storming could affect satellite and low-frequency radio navigation, according to the SWPC. The aurora may be visible as far south as Illinois and Oregon.”