Tag Archives: live blog

Late October 2017 Aurora Strom Live Blog

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Northern Lights Now – Space weather forecasters are predicting 3 days of active aurora conditions. NLN is activating the live blog. We’ll aim to update a couple times a day, or as warranted, so check back often

NLN Live Blog Update – Fri, Sept 27, 02:15 UTC (23:15 EST 10/26)
Live blog time: 74h 15m

We’re calling it. This storm is over. Solar wind speeds have dropped back below 500 km/s. This storm netted two periods of G1 storming. Thank you for tacking it with NLN!

NLN Live Blog Update – Thurs, Sept 26, 13:30 UTC (10:30 EST 10/26)
Live blog time: 61h 30m

The Magnetosphere is now starting to rattle a bit. Bz has sustatined a negative orientation for over 6 hours. This is conducive to aurora and geomagnetic activity. KP has been between 4 and 5 for several hours now. If this continues, G1 is almost certain and G2 is possible.

In the DSCOVR wind chart below, the red bar shows that Bz has been negative for over 6 hours, the two blue bars show that wind speeds have been > 500 km/s for over 48 hours.

Solar wind now conducive to G1 storming
Solar wind now conducive to G1 storming

NLN Live Blog Update – Thurs, Sept 26, 03:15 UTC (23:15 EST 10/25)
Live blog time: 51h 15m

It has been quiet today on the aurora front. Total magnetic fields (Bt) have stayed relatively weak for ranging between 4 and 6 nT, and Bz has been variable. With no prolonged periods of strong Bz south, there has been very little aurora activity. There was one period of G1 storming today and no periods of G2.

Solar wind speeds are still elevated at around 600 km/s and there could be a prolonged period of Bz south at any point, but with each passing hour it is less likely. Today’s busted storm watch goes to show that we need more data from additional satellites to do a really good job of forecasting geomagnetic activity.

Despite the low activity, some aurora reports for the higher latitudes are coming in:

NLN Live Blog Update – Tue, Sept 25, 03:15 UTC (23:15 EST 10/24)
Live blog time: 27h 15m

Solar winds have continued to increase over the last 6 hours and are now in the 600 km/s range with a brief peak above 625 km/s. There was a period of about an hour where Bz was predominantly negative and it produced a period of G1 storming. So far this nearly exactly confirms the posted watch for 10/24. Wing KP models also registered a short term prediction of KP=5.67 for around 02:00 UTC, but this was not measured on the ground. Here is the chart of the measured KPs so far for this storm:

Recorded KP values from boulder confirm the 10/24 G1 storm watch
Recorded KP values from boulder confirm the 10/24 G1 storm watch

NLN Live Blog Update – Tue, Sept 24, 16:15 UTC (12:15 EST 10/24)
Live blog time: 16h 15m

Earth has now entered the high speed wind stream. Solar wind speeds are now registering around 525 km/s after being around 350 km/s just 6 hours ago. Those should increase to over 600 km/s in the next 12 hours. Geomag activity is already responding, KP values have increased to just above 4. There are still several hours before it will reach G1 storming levels.

KPSlowlyClimbing_20171024

Solar wind speeds have increased from around 350 km/s to over 525 km/s
Solar wind speeds have increased from around 350 km/s to over 525 km/s
KP values climbing over 4
KP values climbing over 4

NLN Live Blog Update – Tue, Sept 24, 11:15 UTC (07:15 EST 10/24)
Live blog time: 11h 15m

Have you been watching the density after the last update? It has increase to around 40 p/cm3. It’s very likely solar wind speeds will increase in the near future.

NLN Live Blog Update – Tue, Sept 24, 04:00 UTC (00:00 EST 10/24)
Live blog time: 04h 00m

No sign of the expected solar wind yet. The first signs it is on it’s way will be that the proton density rises as earth enters the co-rotating interaction region (CIR). That sounds uber-technical, but all it means is that there are two streams of solar wind moving towards earth at different speeds. At the place they meet, there is a region where they interact. It means we know there is a period of fast solar wind coming when the proton density measured at DSCOVR increases. For now, Density is at nearly background levels around 5 p/cm3

Proton density is still at nearly background levels.
Proton density is still at nearly background levels.

NLN Live Blog Update – Tue, Sept 24, 00:00 UTC (20:00 EST 10/23)
Live blog time: 00h 00m

The NLN live blog is activated. We’ll bring news and updates about the predicted solar storm over the next 3-4 days. Here is the current three day auroraCast clock showing G1 predictions on Oct 24 and 26 sandwiching G2 forecasts for OCt 25.

NLN AuroraCast shows three days of G1 and G2 activity from October 24-26
NLN AuroraCast shows three days of G1 and G2 activity from October 24-26

August 2nd & 3rd Solar Storm Live Blog

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Northern Lights Now – SWPC has posted a G2 storm watch for August 2nd and a G1 storm watch for August 3rd. NLN will keep a live blog of the storm as it unfolds here.

Update 8/4 2:30 UTC (10:30pm EST)

A quick recap: The big winners for aurora photography in this storm were the Northern states west of the Great Lakes and Canada, New Zealand and Tasmania. Denmark was also in the sweet spot at the very beginning of the storm when the initial CME arrived. There were a couple pictures of faint pillars in ME, NH and VT as well.

Solar wind never quite reached the high levels expected in the prediction. The helps explain why the storming started a little later than predicted also – if the wind is moving slower, it takes longer to travel from the Sun to Earth. In the end there were four periods of G1 storming recorded.

Thanks for following along for this storm!

This solar storm is done, in total 4 periods of G1, and 4 periods of KP=4. 24 hours total.
This solar storm is done, in total 4 periods of G1, and 4 periods of KP=4. 24 hours total.

Update 8/3 16:30 UTC (12:30pm EST)

The storm seem be dying down. Solar wind speeds have picked up, but they did not reach the predicted 600+ km/s. Here’s a create timelapse video from overnight from Robert Snache (@spirithands)

Update 8/3 11:00 UTC (7:00am EST)

So many wonderful pictures overnight. There were 3 periods of G1 recorded, and it appears there is a 4th happening now. There is an outside chance that the current period will reach G2. Here are a couple tweet with aurora pictures the we’ve seen overnight:

Back of cam:

Angel Brise finds some gems on webcams:

In Regina:

Neil Zeller:

Update 8/3 04:45 UTC (12:45am EST)

Starting about an hour ago, Bz dipped back south. Bt is still very strong, so this may be enough to produce some more pillars in the mid-latitudes. Aurora hunters will still probably need long exposures to get a good view. KP=5.33 (G1) in 20 minutes. Here’s a look at the boulder KP 3-hour averages so far – notice that storming didn’t technically reach G2 levels during the last substorm:

Two periods of storming so far in this solar storm
Two periods of storming so far in this solar storm

Update 8/2 23:00 UTC (7:00pm EST)

G2 storming is now predicted by the Wing-KP model. KP=6 shortly! This is almost exactly when the initial forecasts indicated we might see G2 storming. The strong solar wind hasn’t really picked up yet – wind speeds have only just touched 450 km/s.

Wing-KP shows KP=6 soon on August 2
Wing-KP shows KP=6 soon on August 2

Bz shifted to the north, so NLN is expecting this storm to be short lived. Good luck. Hopefully there will be more later tonight

Update 8/2 22:30 UTC (6:30pm EST)

First aurora picture of the night! This tweet shows a photo from Denmark by Twitter follower @ADphotography24

Update 8/2 21:45 UTC (5:45pm EST)

Around 8:00am UTC Bz made a decisive shift to the south. This should be good for aurora hunters and we expect to see some pictures coming in soon. We also expect the wing-KP models to reflect this aurora within the next 2-3 hrs.

Update 8/2 06:30 UPC (2:30am EST)

The first hints of the expected solar storm from the filament eruption appear to be arriving. Solar wind, density and Bt/Bz all reflected the shocks impact. The shock was weaker than expected, but also a little earlier than expected. We’re not really expecting any aurora yet, still plenty of hours ahead for a show.

Initial CME arrives around 04:00 UTC on August 2
Initial CME arrives around 04:00 UTC on August 2