Tag Archives: G2

August 2nd & 3rd Solar Storm Live Blog

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Northern Lights Now – SWPC has posted a G2 storm watch for August 2nd and a G1 storm watch for August 3rd. NLN will keep a live blog of the storm as it unfolds here.

Update 8/4 2:30 UTC (10:30pm EST)

A quick recap: The big winners for aurora photography in this storm were the Northern states west of the Great Lakes and Canada, New Zealand and Tasmania. Denmark was also in the sweet spot at the very beginning of the storm when the initial CME arrived. There were a couple pictures of faint pillars in ME, NH and VT as well.

Solar wind never quite reached the high levels expected in the prediction. The helps explain why the storming started a little later than predicted also – if the wind is moving slower, it takes longer to travel from the Sun to Earth. In the end there were four periods of G1 storming recorded.

Thanks for following along for this storm!

This solar storm is done, in total 4 periods of G1, and 4 periods of KP=4. 24 hours total.
This solar storm is done, in total 4 periods of G1, and 4 periods of KP=4. 24 hours total.

Update 8/3 16:30 UTC (12:30pm EST)

The storm seem be dying down. Solar wind speeds have picked up, but they did not reach the predicted 600+ km/s. Here’s a create timelapse video from overnight from Robert Snache (@spirithands)

Update 8/3 11:00 UTC (7:00am EST)

So many wonderful pictures overnight. There were 3 periods of G1 recorded, and it appears there is a 4th happening now. There is an outside chance that the current period will reach G2. Here are a couple tweet with aurora pictures the we’ve seen overnight:

Back of cam:

Angel Brise finds some gems on webcams:

In Regina:

Neil Zeller:

Update 8/3 04:45 UTC (12:45am EST)

Starting about an hour ago, Bz dipped back south. Bt is still very strong, so this may be enough to produce some more pillars in the mid-latitudes. Aurora hunters will still probably need long exposures to get a good view. KP=5.33 (G1) in 20 minutes. Here’s a look at the boulder KP 3-hour averages so far – notice that storming didn’t technically reach G2 levels during the last substorm:

Two periods of storming so far in this solar storm
Two periods of storming so far in this solar storm

Update 8/2 23:00 UTC (7:00pm EST)

G2 storming is now predicted by the Wing-KP model. KP=6 shortly! This is almost exactly when the initial forecasts indicated we might see G2 storming. The strong solar wind hasn’t really picked up yet – wind speeds have only just touched 450 km/s.

Wing-KP shows KP=6 soon on August 2
Wing-KP shows KP=6 soon on August 2

Bz shifted to the north, so NLN is expecting this storm to be short lived. Good luck. Hopefully there will be more later tonight

Update 8/2 22:30 UTC (6:30pm EST)

First aurora picture of the night! This tweet shows a photo from Denmark by Twitter follower @ADphotography24

Update 8/2 21:45 UTC (5:45pm EST)

Around 8:00am UTC Bz made a decisive shift to the south. This should be good for aurora hunters and we expect to see some pictures coming in soon. We also expect the wing-KP models to reflect this aurora within the next 2-3 hrs.

Update 8/2 06:30 UPC (2:30am EST)

The first hints of the expected solar storm from the filament eruption appear to be arriving. Solar wind, density and Bt/Bz all reflected the shocks impact. The shock was weaker than expected, but also a little earlier than expected. We’re not really expecting any aurora yet, still plenty of hours ahead for a show.

Initial CME arrives around 04:00 UTC on August 2
Initial CME arrives around 04:00 UTC on August 2

G2 Aurora storming predicted for August 2nd and August 3rd 2016

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Northern Lights Now – SWPC has issued two geomagnetic storm watches for G2 storming (KP=6+) on August 2nd and G1 storming (KP=5+) on August 3rd. These watches are the result of a pair of solar features that will impact Earth starting midday UTC on August 2nd. The NLN AuroraCast shows the current predicted timing for the timing. As always, these can be within +/- 6 hours:

Please visit NLN’s live blog of this storm and follow out Twitter feed for the most up-to-date information.

NLN AuroraCast shows the expected timing of the G1 and G2 storming for Aug 2nd and 3rd
NLN AuroraCast shows the expected timing of the G1 and G2 storming for Aug 2nd and 3rd

The first solar event that will impact Earth is the arrival of a very slow moving CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) that was launched during the July 28th filament eruption. The eruption happened almost dead center (near N01E06) on the solar disk. The associated CME was estimated to be travelling at 125-150 km/s. At that speed, it could take as many as 7 days for the CME to arrive at Earth, but it should be pushed by the ambient solar wind to 350 km/s or so. Then, an even higher wind from a coronal hole high speed wind stream should push it even faster to 600-650 km/s. There are several factors making the timing on this forecast complex – current models show the CME arriving midday to late August 2nd, 5 days after it’s launch.

In the animated GIF below watch the filament eruption in a composite of AIA 211, 193 and 171 wavelengths. These frames are about 14 hours of images taken by the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) cameras. Note that just to the east (left) of the eruption, the coronal hole rotating into center disk is visible as a darker area:

AnimatedGIF of July 28th filament eruption responsible for the G2 aurora watch on Aug 2
AnimatedGIF of July 28th filament eruption responsible for the G2 aurora watch on Aug 2

The second feature is a large coronal hole that rotated into geoeffective position on July 31. The high speed stream from this CH measured at STEREO Ahead indicated that winds could reach 650-750 km/s at L1. This very strong wind will likely start impacting Earth either with or just after the CME arrives. If it “pushes” the particles in the CME, they will arrive at the leading edge of the shock. Due to the elongated shape of the CH, the period of elevated winds could be extended in duration. Here is an image of the coronal hole from SDO in AIA 211 from July 31 as it rotated toward Earth:

Coronal hole in AIA 211 from SDO on July 31
Coronal hole in AIA 211 from SDO on July 31

Together these storms have the potential to arrive with a strong shock and an extended period of high solar wind and active geomagnetic conditions. If they do, it should be a very good couple of nights for aurora hunters worldwide. As an added bonus, the Moon will be waxing just past new, so skies should be dark.

Happy Hunting!

G2 Storm Watch Issued, Aurora Possible June 4, 2016

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Northern Lights Now – The large coronal hole that was responsible for the May 6-8 Mother’s Day G3 aurora storm is pointed toward earth again and has potential to create aurora this weekend. SWPC has posted a G2 storm watch for June 4, with a period of predicted G1 and G2 (KP=5, KP6 respectively) storming late in the UTC day. It is likely this watch will be extended to June 5 tomorrow. This means good aurora conditions are possible on Friday and Saturday evenings – particularly in the southern hemisphere where it is winter and the nights are longer.

The Dark area in center disk is the coronal hole that may produce aurora on June 4
The Dark area in center disk is the coronal hole that may produce aurora on June 4

The initial estimates for the timing of the arrival of the solar wind are often off by several hours, but the current estimates show two periods of G1 storming starting around 1500 GMT, then a period of G2 storming starting in the 2100 GMT timeperiod. This is good timing for European and North American aurora chasers, but NLN is expecting the storm to last long enough that it will be good for the evening of June 5 in New Zealand and Southern Australia. As of June 1, this is the NLN aurora clock for the day covered in the watch period:

NLN auroraCast shows G1 and G2 periods of storming in the final 3 periods of June 4
NLN auroraCast shows G1 and G2 periods of storming in the final 3 periods of June 4

Happy Hunting!