In yesterday’s Aurora brief we mentioned that activity might be heating up. It did heat up, but not from either of the regions we featured. We experienced a long duration M2.24 flare from AR2282. NLN measured the decay rate on this flare at 1.6 (lower = more likely to produce a CME), and all indications are there will be a large CME from the eruption. We’ll have to wait on LASCO imagery to get confirmation, and to determine if it will be Earth directed.
NLN added a new feature to the site over the weekend. The KP chart on the upper right on this page and on the current Real-time KP page continuously refreshes. You no longer have to refresh the page to see current data.
Today’s featured Tweet is from HaloCME, with an excellent video of the likely CME from the M2.44 Flare:
The Sun has been fairly quiet over the last week, but there are hints that there may be some solar activity ahead. There is a huge filament that is stretching from the SW quadrant to the NE quadrant of the Sun. You can see it in the image below as the dark line snaking through the ligher areas in the SDO AIA 204 image from this morning. Much of this filament is facing Earth, if it erupts, we’d likely see a major Earth-directed CME.
The second hint that activity may be picking up is that AR 2280 has developed a delta spot. This region is rotating off the Earth-sun line, but could potentially produce a CME. If nothing else, it raises the chances there will be an M-class flare in the next couple days. Here’s the magnetogram with the region labeled:
Today Featured Tweet: A beautiful sunset from the space station.
The first geomagnetic storming of February 2015 is now winding down.
This storm was unique in its long duration. It prompted four continuous days of G1 geomagnetic storm watches from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. This storm was also unique in that there was a long lead on predictions that there might be Aurora. The first hints there might be a storm were on Saturday, January 24th, almost a week in advance of the onset of high solar winds that prompted the watch. We noted this chance in our blog post on “How to read the WSA-Enlil Model.” By Tuesday, it was clear there was a good chance a watch would be issued as we detailed in “Next Chance for Aurora Jan 30, 2015.” The watch was finally issued Wednesday evening, for Friday.
Over the course of the storm, solar winds gradually climbed from 350-375 Km/s to a maximum peak of 783 km/s. The threshold for “very high” wind is 800km/s. The wind was coming from the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and from the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) coming off the coronal hole in the southern hemisphere of the Sun. This hole has persisted for several weeks now. As it rotates and the northern extensions cross the Earth-Sun line, Earth experiences higher solar wind speeds 3-5 days later. Keep an eye on the CH as these extensions rotate around again in two weeks.
KP readings never reached extreme levels. In fact, there was only one period with G1 storming on Feb 1 and two periods on Feb 2. [As we write this, activity has increased again and there is an outside chance we may see an additional period of G1 storming.] The main reason the storming was not more significant was a lack of proton density – with fewer protons traveling on the wind, there is less energy to displace the Earth’s magnetosphere. The periods of active storming coincided with increased proton activity. Had there been any solar eruptions that released proton solar storms along the Earth-Sun line during this period of high solar wind, we could have easily seen much stronger storming.
Even with KPs in the 4.67-5.33 range, our Twitter feed lit up with beautiful pictures of the Northern Lights and Aurora Australis. We featured the following tweets in our new Aurora Briefs Section. All of the pictures come from higher latitudes. The moon was bright and waxing gibbous, one day away from full. The peak of the storm happened just as the furthest south portion of the auroral oval was over a giant winter storm covering many viewers with a thick layer of clouds. The extra light, and lack of visibility was frustrating to many aurora viewers. This makes us appreciate the successful pictures even more! Here are were some of our favorites:
We seem to still be in an active pattern. While the current storm is winding down, we’re already looking ahead to the next potential storm. WSA-Enlil is showing increasing solar winds again with an increase in solar proton density on Friday, February 6. We’ll be keeping an eye out for stroming on that date.