Category Archives: Storm Live Blog

Valentine’s Day 2016 Aurora – Live Updates

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Northern Lights Now – There’s an active geomagnetic storm watch for Valentine’s day 2016. NLN will be posting live leading up to the storm and as it happens here, please come back often!

Update: 02:15UTC Feb 16 (9:15pm EST)

Amazing – More than 24 hours after the predicted arrival of the Feb 11 CME, space weather activity has increased. Bz just dived to -6, while Bt has been above 20 and wind speed is increasing. We may get KP=5 yet! KP is currently t 4.33, and it could easily climb over the next hour.

This tweet was just posted by Eva Olsen – @MissEvaOlsen

The interesting question presented by this data: Is this the arrival of the predicted CME, or is this a disturbance traveling along a slightly elevated wind stream?

Update: 17:30UTC Feb 15 (12:30pm EST)

We’re calling it. This storm is a miss. There is no indication that is approaching.

Space weather data shows no tell-tale indication of a solar storm passage
Space weather data shows no tell-tale indication of a solar storm passage

In the image above, if you expand it and look closely, you could almost make a compelling argument that the CME arrived between 5 and 7am GMT (during our last update) as the density is consistently above 10 p/cm3.

Time to look forward to the next potential solar storm. Luckily for aurora hunters, the wait won’t be long. On Wednesday the high speed stream from the northern extension of a southern pole coronal hole should arrive at Earth and bring with it a chance for activity. Stay tuned for a post about that.

High speed winds from coronal hole may impact Earth on 2/17
High speed winds from coronal hole may impact Earth on 2/17

Update: 12:30UTC Feb 15 (7:30am EST)

The CME arrival is now officialy late. It is either moving very slowly or it missed Earth. SWPC has updated their forecast and is now calling for the arrival about 6 hours from now, here’s the updated NLN 3-day AuroraCast showing the updated forecast from SWPC:

Updated 3-day auroraCast from NLN and SWPC shows today's storm arriving at 1:00pm EST
Updated 3-day auroraCast from NLN and SWPC shows today’s storm arriving at 1:00pm EST

This means we’re still in wait-and-see mode. Though every hour that passes without a sure sign of the arrival means it’s more likely this was a dud.

Note in the image above a new period of G1 storming is predicted on day three. This is due to the coronal hole that was pointed towards Earth yesterday. There is a new watch posted for this period. NLN will make a new post about that watch soon.

Update: 06:00UTC Feb 15 (1:00am EST)

Over the last half hour there has been a marked increase in proton density. Readings have sustained above 10 p/cm3 with occasional spikes above 18. Earlier these reading were between 5 and 8 with occasional brief spikes. This is an indication that the CME is arriving. In addition to the proton density, Bt measurements have shown a couple abrupt changes in the last hour. Both of these indications say that the CME shock could arrive in the next hour or two, with the impact at Earth about an hour later. Here’s the current data from spaceweatherlive.com (where you monitor ACE satellite data in near real-time):

Live data from ACE shows increases in proton density and fluctuating Bt
Live data from ACE shows increases in proton density and fluctuating Bt

Over the next two hours, watch for more sudden jumps in Bt, proton density to increase to 20 with spikes above 30, and the solar wind speed to pick up. As the CME shock arrives, all measures should show significant changes. Once that happens, watch the Bz. If the Bz shifts into negative territory, it means the CME is oriented correctly to produce aurora on Earth. Once the Bz shifts south, about an hour later the KP will rise and aurora hunters will be rewarded for the wait tonight.

Since this storm is delayed from the predicted schedule, Europeans probably won’t get to see northern lights tonight. But people in New Zealand may get a display.

It’s time for the NLN crew to head to bed. Our next post will be in the morning.

Update: 02:30UTC Feb 15 (9:30pm EST)

Hang tight! It’s not time to give up yet. It will be at least another hour before any aurora starts, and probably more – the CME has not arrived yet. While we’re waiting, here’s some aurora from Iceland in January.

Update: 23:00UTC Feb 14 (6:00pm EST)

The period when KP=5+ is predicted has begun. However, NLN, space weather scientists and space weather enthusiasts are still in wait and see mode. The absence of a clear indication in EPAM of the approaching CME indicates either that the CME is missing Earth, or it is moving slower than expected. There have continued to be hints of activity in the data at ACE – recently spikes in the the proton density graphs indicate there are small waves of protons hitting the satellite. Similar to the data in the 20:00 update, these could be indicators that the front of the CME is being pushed by the high speed solar wind from the coronal hole. If that’s true, the CME may have sheared while traveling through space.

Spikes in Proton Density over the last two hours - may indicate the leading edges of the CME have been sheared and are arrviing
Spikes in Proton Density over the last two hours – may indicate the leading edges of the CME have been sheared and are arrviing

As time goes on with the arrival, confidence that there will be a northern lights display decreases. However, it is far too early to make a call that it won’t happen given the data available.

Update: 20:00UTC Feb 14 (3:00pm EST)

A slight, but sudden, increase in solar wind that happened at the same time as a drop in the Bt from 7nT to 5nT just now may indicate the first hints of the CME are starting to arrive. The next 3 hours will be telling

Update: 19:00UTC Feb 14 (2:00pm EST)

As of now, there is still no definitive indication that the CME is approaching. Fingers crossed.

A quick update on the cloud cover forecasts for this evening. In the US – it will be very clear and cold in the Northeast, this should make for great viewing conditions for aurora hunters who can handle the cold. Most of the mid-west will be mired in clouds, but there may be chances to spot the aurora through breaks in the clouds in Montana:

Clear skies are marked in blue in this cloud cover forecast for the US
Clear skies are marked in blue in this cloud cover forecast for the US

In Iceland – there’s a storm expected to blow through overnight. There will be a brief window where if may be clear in the early evening, but clouds are expected to roll in from the southwest to the north east. The best bet for Northern Lights in Iceland will be in the northeast, the earlier the lights start the better:

In this cloudcover forecast for iceland from the IMO, an area of clear skies moves across the island before the clouds (green) roll in
In this cloudcover forecast for iceland from the IMO, an area of clear skies moves across the island before the clouds (green) roll in

In the rest of europe – conditions look very good for most of the UK and Ireland. Scotland is predicted to have some cloud cover so it may take being flexible to find a good spot to photograph. In Norway, there could be some good views in the South, but most Scandinavian photographers will have to drive to find clear skies:

Cloud cover forecast for midnight GMT in Europe shows clear skies as green
Cloud cover forecast for midnight GMT in Europe shows clear skies as green

Update: 13:30UTC Feb 14 (8:30am EST)

So far, no signs that the CME is approaching on EPAM:

EPAM shows only a minor rise around 2/13, still awaiting CME confirmation from EPAM
EPAM shows only a minor rise around 2/13, still awaiting CME confirmation from EPAM

Typically when a CME is approaching, EPAM levels will rise slowly from the moment the eruption happens through the point that the CME shock arrives at Earth. If the EPAM isn’t rising, it can be an indication that the CME will pass by Earth without any impact. Sometimes when the CME is travelling slowly, the EPAM won’t rise until just a couple hours before the arrival. It is too early to call this storm.

Update: 00:30UTC Feb 14 (7:30pm EST 12/13)

A quick update on some of the imagery coming from the flare on 2/11. When the flare happened, there was a clear CME traveling to the north and west, but there was also a shock wave that moved eastward across the Sun showing “ripples” all the way to the coronal hole in the South West. When looking at the LASCO CME imaging, the second portion of the eruption signature shows a 3/4 partial halo. Finally, the coronal dimming is fairly extensive. All three of these together indicate there’s a good chance there is a CME headed toward Earth.

Coronal Dimming:

Coronal Dimming graphic shows extent of dimming during the C8.92 Flare
Coronal Dimming graphic shows extent of dimming during the C8.92 Flare

Coronal Hole High Speed Stream Now Impacting Earth – Live Updates

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Northern Lights Now – The Coronal Hole High Speed Wind Stream (CH HSS) that prompted the Jan 6, 2016 G1 #aurora watch started arriving at Earth just past Midnight GMT On Jan 6. Rather than updating the original article, NLN will be posting updates to this blog post instead, please come back soon for more updates!

13:44 UTC January 7, 2015 (08:45AM EST)

Solar winds are now gradually subsiding. This period shows too much variability in the Bz to produce wide-spread aurora.

23:45 UTC January 6, 2015 (18:15PM EST)

Around 21:45 UTC the Bz shifted softly to the south with measurements in the -2 to -4nT range at the ACE satellite. This is very mildly south, but it lasted for about 75 minutes. It was enough to start an aurora show in Finland. Here’s a skycam framegrab taken from the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory from about an hour after the negative Bz was measured at Earth:

Aurora skycam from Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory in Finland
Aurora skycam from Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory in Finland

17:15 UTC January 6, 2015 (12:15PM EST)

Solar wind speeds have decreased slightly over the last 12 hours to around 525-550 km/s. In the last 2 hours readings have become more volatile. The Bz has stayed consistently north. As such, there have not been any signs of aurora. It is still possible that any transients or small CMEs traveling along the wind stream could push the Bz one way or the other. If that happens, there will be about 45 minutes of lead time.

04:15 UTC January 6, 2015 (11:15PM EST)

Just after midnight UTC solar wind speed started increasing. Reading moved up from 450km/s to 625km/s at the same time there was a 90 minute period of south point Bz. Together, these events pushed ground based KP monitors to register a KP of 4.67 (G1) for the 00:00 – 03:00 period. Wing KP responded by over-estimating the predicted 60 minute KP with a reading of 5.67 even though the Bz subsequently shifted to the north. The is expected to be a long duration high solar wind speed event, so there are ample opportunities for more aurora over the next 24-36 hours. Here’s the ACE data from SWPC with the increase in wind speed annotated:

Annotated ACE satellite date show increase in solar wind speed around midnight UTC
Annotated ACE satellite date show increase in solar wind speed around midnight UTC
WingKP registered a short term forecast of KP=5.67 around 03:45 UTC which was likely an over-estimate of actual conditions
WingKP registered a short term forecast of KP=5.67 around 03:45 UTC which was likely an over-estimate of actual conditions

Through this, there was a brief period where we’d have expected to see Aurora at lower latitudes. During that window this tweet came in from Scotland marking the first photographed aurora from this storm: