Category Archives: Storm Live Blog

June 4-5 G2 Storm Live Blog

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Northern Lights Now – NLN will be live blogging tonight’s expected G2 solar storm, please come back often for updates.

Update 11:00am UTC 6/6/2016 (7:00am EST)

Sure enough! There was another substorm left in this active period. KP reached G2 levels in the 3-6am UTC period, while the short term KP forecast actually briefly reaching G3. Northern lights reports streamed in from western New York through the upper Midwest on Twitter. As of this update, KP is still in the G1 range, but the Bz shifted decisively north, so it may be done for good now. Thanks live tracking this storm with NLN! Here are some of those Twitter posts:

Update 2:00am UTC 6/6/2016 (11:00pm EST)

The storm is winding down. Solar winds are still high, but proton density and Bt have decreased. Bz is not making sustained or deep moves in the negative direction. The storm had one brief period where the short term forecast reached G2 levels, but the max three-hour activity was measured at G1. The timing of this storm also did not align well for aurora hunters as there were clouds in most places that would have been visible. New Zealand was the big winner. There still a chance a good substorm could produce Aurora for hunters in the midwest or Central Canada over the next couple hours, but it is becoming less and less likely. Here’s the graph of storm activity from this storm showing 4 periods of G1:

June 4-6 storm recap shows 4 periods of G1 storming.
June 4-6 storm recap shows 4 periods of G1 storming.

Update 9:00pm UTC 6/5/2016 (6:00pm EST)

The storm is still stirring! The Wing-KP model is now predicting KP=5.67 in 50 minutes. Solar wind speed are over 600 km/s and Bz is moving in and out of negative. If there is a sustained negative Bz, KP could shoot up into the G3 storming range. Best bet for aurora is Europe south of the “land of the midnight Sun.” Iceland won’t be getting dark enough for a show tonight, and it’s cloudy on the American East coast. If the storm lasts long enough hunters in the western great lakes and into the plains could get lucky.

G2 aurora storming predicted in 54 minutes.
G2 aurora storming predicted in 54 minutes.
Solar Wind speed has now exceeded 600 km/s
Solar Wind speed has now exceeded 600 km/s

Update 2:30pm UTC 6/5/2016 (11:30am EST)

Short term predictions now include KP=5.00 or G1 storming! Expect more aurora reports from the southern hemisphere soon!

G1 storming begins!
G1 storming begins!

Update 2:00pm UTC 6/5/2016 (11:00am EST)

Solar wind speeds are now reading above 500 km/s, the storm is arriving. It is arriving about 12 hours later than initially forecast, but it’s here. The timing is such that most of North America missed the first part of this storm. Our Kiwi and Aussie friends should get a good show though. If the storm continues on long enough, European aurora hunters may also get a treat. There have been a couple early Aurora reports from NZ. Here’s a back of cam picture of the beginning of the storm from Ian Griffin:

Update 10:00am UTC 6/5/2016 (6:00am EST)

Not much to report yet. Wind speeds over the lat hour climbed to as high as 390 km/s, but are still well off of the predicted speeds. In a hint of good news, Bz has been negative over the last hour. That negative Bz has helped push the predicted Bz to 4.33, it’s highest level of the storm. This shows that even with weak wind, a strong Bt and proton density plus a favorable Bz can be enough for aurora hunters. Stay tuned, the next 12 hours could be interesting.

predicted KP jumps to 4.33, the highest so far of this storm, due to negative Bz
predicted KP jumps to 4.33, the highest so far of this storm, due to negative Bz

Update 2:30am UTC 6/5/2016 (10:30pm EST)

Over the last three hours, the solar wind environment has started to reflect the influence of the coronal hole. Density has increased from around 3-4 parts per cubic centimeter to over 10, with spikes to 40+. The solar wind speed has increased slightly from ~300 km/s to 325-350 km/s. Over the next several hours, we’re expecting solar wind to gradually increase, it could reach as high as 600 km/s. Once the wind speed is higher, watch the Bz. If it shifts south, aurora should follow soon after. Here’s a graphic of the solar wind environment from the SWPC, note the distinct change in density profile and wind speed (labeled radial speed) around 23:00:

24 hours solar wind data from SWPC shows enhancement beginning around 23:00
24 hours solar wind data from SWPC shows enhancement beginning around 23:00

Update 9:30pm UTC 6/4/2016 (5:30pm EST)

The first hints that the solar storm may be arriving are showing in the ACE solar wind data. Proton density has slowly increased to 5 p/cm3 over the last 45 minutes, and took a sudden jump to 11 p/cm3 in the last 5 minutes. This was accompanied by an increase in Bt to 5 nT. It will still be several hours before there is any real chance for Aurora, but this is the first hint that activity may be picking up.

Short Spike in proton density is the first hint that expected activity may be arriving.
Short Spike in proton density is the first hint that expected activity may be arriving.

Aurora on April 2nd and 3rd Live Blog

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Northern Lights Now – SWPC has upgraded the storm watch posted yesterday from G1 to G2 and extended the watch an additional 24 hours. NLN will be live blogging this storm and sharing updates as they are available – check back often over the next 36 hours for updates.

Tim Peake on the International Space Station:


Update 3:00 AM UTC 4/3/2016 (11:00pm EST -4/2/2016)

Some lights over Rovaniemi, Finland from All About Lapland:

In Tasmania, there was a hint of the Southern Lights on the horizon:

Update 10:00 PM UTC 4/3/2016 (6:00pm EST)

This will be the last post for this period of geomagnetic activity, unless the storm surprises and kicks back up again. In the end this storm was limited to a single period where KP reached the G2 threshold and a second period where it peaked at G1 over a total of nine hours. This isn’t far off from what we originally predicted. The storm arrived about 12 hours later than the preditions. The peak wind speeds meaured was 548km/s, almost exactly as forecast, but the 5 minute average measured speed never passed 520km/s.

There were some people who caught a glimpse of the Aurora, thank you for sharing!

This storm may be wrapping up. Solar wind speeds have already started decreases and are now below 500km/s. KP has also been slowing decreasing after about 4 hours of G1 storming from 18:00 to 22:00 UTC. Once the official data from Boulder is available, we should get confirmation that there was a brief period of G2 storming as well.

The timing and clouds mean not many people got to see aurora during this storm. Astronaughts on the International Space Station should have seen some of the show, and there’s a chance that hunters in New Zealand and possible around the great lakes may have seen some of the show. Please share your pictures with us on Twitter and follow NLN (@northLightAlert) too if you aren’t already.

Update 8:45pm UTC 4/2/2016 (5:45pm EST)

Boulder is reporting one period of G1 storming so far. There has been a brief period where the wing KP was predicting G2 storming (at 6.33 – the peak in the chart below). This storm is coming in just about as expected. It was a little late, which indicates that the solar wind was a little slower than the models, and with the wind a little slower the max KP is a little lower. But the slower wind speed also means the storm could last a little longer than the original forecast. If Bz stays negative there could be an extended period of G1 activity giving North America a show tonight.

Boulder is reporting one period of G1 storming so far tonight
Boulder is reporting one period of G1 storming so far tonight
NLN's inforgraphic showing wing KP and Ovation aurora oval from tonight
NLN’s inforgraphic showing wing KP and Ovation aurora oval from tonight

Most of the normal aurora hot spots in Europe were clouded in tonight, so there weren’t many northern lights reports. The skies look much clearer over North America tonight. If the storm continues for several more hours (very possible), American and Canadian aurora hunter should be rewarded.

Clear Skies perdicted across most of North America this evening
Clear Skies perdicted across most of North America this evening

Update 4:00pm UTC 4/2/2016 (1:00pm EST)

The solarstorm is now arriving. Solar wind speeds have increased to above 450 km/s. This storm appears to be arriving with the Bz oriented South. This is great news for aurora hunters. If Bz stays negative (south) over the next several hours, KP shold increase into the G1 and Possbly G2 range.

Data (visualizations from spaceweatherlive) showing solarstorm arriving.
Data (visualizations from spaceweatherlive) showing solarstorm arriving.

Update 11:00am UTC 4/2/2016 (7:00am EST)

The expected solar wind has not arrived at Earth yet. In the last hour there have been hints that it may be about to be detected. The Solar Wind Density has increased and is currently registering above 10 parts per cubic centimeter after increasing from the ambient 1-4 p/cm3. This is sometimes a short-term leading indicator that anticipates the increase in wind speed. It is often the case that space weather predictions miss by +/-6 hours, so this is not unexpected.

Solar wind  density has increased to above 7 p/cm3 in the last half hour
Solar wind density has increased to above 7 p/cm3 in the last half hour

The delay in the arrival of the expected activity hints that it may be weaker than initially anticipated, but also that it may last longer than initially anticipated. Aurora hunters are now in wait-and-see mode for this storm.

Update 4:00am UTC 4/2/2016 (Midnight EST)

SWPC has upgraded the expected storm from G1 to G2, they are now expecting a period of Moderate storming in the second 3 hour block after the storm arrives. The watch period has also been extended into April 3rd. Here’s the snapshot of the auroracast forecast for today and tomorrow.

AuroraCast shows G2 storming on 4/2 and G1 storming on 4/3
AuroraCast shows G2 storming on 4/2 and G1 storming on 4/3

Solar wind is still at ambient levels at between 330 and 350 km/s. It should pick up over the next several hours.

Happy Hunting!

Live Storm Updates – G2 Aurora Now

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Northern Lights Now – This post contains live updates to the storm predicted in Coronal Hole Prompts G1 Aurora Watch for Sat/Sun March 3rd and 4th.

March 7, 2016 03:45UTC (10:45 PM EST)

Tonight’s Aurora show has ended for most viewers. There may still be some good photos come in from areas that only need KP=4, but for the mostpart it’s time to good to bed for the sleep deprived intrepid aurora hunters. By all accounts it has been a terrific night. The official prediction was for a single 3-hour period of KP=5, but there were 12 hours with the KP in the G1 zone with a peak period of G3 activity:

Boulder KP readings show 12 hours of G1, G2, and G3 activity
Boulder KP readings show 12 hours of of G1, G2, and G3 activity

This evening Eastern North America joined in the action just as the storm was abating – hunters in Prince Edward Island, Maine and New Hampshire all reported success:

PEI from aurora hunter John Morris:

Maine from our friend Rob Wright:

New Hampshire from the Mount Washington Observatory atop the White Mountains:

March 7, 2016 00:30UTC (7:30 PM EST)

The storm has started to abated just a little. But it has been great. We haven’t seen any aurora posted by hunters in North America yet, but we expect at least some from Maine and PEI soon. Bz has been north over the last 20 minutes. If it stays that way, the show will be over in about 45 minutes. If it shifts back to the south, even parts of the midwest could have an opportunity for aurora tonight.

March 6, 2016 19:30UTC (5:30 PM EST)

This is an absolutely amazing storm! Bz continues to be south as much as 10nT, Bt has been between 10nT and 20nT for hours, and there are clear skies in much of the UK and Ireland. One indicator of the strength of this is storm is all the reports of Red hues to the aurora.

Check out these wonderful aurora tweets:

March 6, 2016 17:00UTC (3:00 PM EST)

This storm is continuing to get stronger. KP is predicted to be 6.67 in 45 minutes. Aurora reports are streaming in on Twitter from

Ireland:

Northumberland :

and Netherlands:

March 6, 2016 16:00UTC (2:00 PM EST)

As expected, the Wing KP model was under-estimating the strength of this storm. The Boulder Kp which is based on ground measurments over the last three hours was just updated to 5.67 indicating G2 storming. There is nothing in the data to suggest this won’t be a very good storm for Europe and possibly Iceland and the northeastern US once it gets dark. Here’s a snapshot of the current Ovation model output:

Ovation shows the extent and strength of Aurora continuing to increase
Ovation shows the extent and strength of Aurora continuing to increase

March 6, 2016 13:00UTC (11:00 PM EST)

Solar wind data at ACE is indicating that the high speed solar wind from the coronal hole is arriving. The Bz component of the magnetic field is oriented south and has been for over an hour and a half. Wing KP (which the graph to the right and in the post below) is based on is indicating a predicted KP of 4.00. This likely an underestimate of the actual KP. Once the Boulder ground-based KP readings come in, the wing KP model will respond with higher readings. This is looking like it could be a good storm!

Wing KP is showing expected KP of 4.0 soon
Wing KP is showing expected KP of 4.0 soon