Category Archives: Storm Live Blog

August 2nd & 3rd Solar Storm Live Blog

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Northern Lights Now – SWPC has posted a G2 storm watch for August 2nd and a G1 storm watch for August 3rd. NLN will keep a live blog of the storm as it unfolds here.

Update 8/4 2:30 UTC (10:30pm EST)

A quick recap: The big winners for aurora photography in this storm were the Northern states west of the Great Lakes and Canada, New Zealand and Tasmania. Denmark was also in the sweet spot at the very beginning of the storm when the initial CME arrived. There were a couple pictures of faint pillars in ME, NH and VT as well.

Solar wind never quite reached the high levels expected in the prediction. The helps explain why the storming started a little later than predicted also – if the wind is moving slower, it takes longer to travel from the Sun to Earth. In the end there were four periods of G1 storming recorded.

Thanks for following along for this storm!

This solar storm is done, in total 4 periods of G1, and 4 periods of KP=4. 24 hours total.
This solar storm is done, in total 4 periods of G1, and 4 periods of KP=4. 24 hours total.

Update 8/3 16:30 UTC (12:30pm EST)

The storm seem be dying down. Solar wind speeds have picked up, but they did not reach the predicted 600+ km/s. Here’s a create timelapse video from overnight from Robert Snache (@spirithands)

Update 8/3 11:00 UTC (7:00am EST)

So many wonderful pictures overnight. There were 3 periods of G1 recorded, and it appears there is a 4th happening now. There is an outside chance that the current period will reach G2. Here are a couple tweet with aurora pictures the we’ve seen overnight:

Back of cam:

Angel Brise finds some gems on webcams:

In Regina:

Neil Zeller:

Update 8/3 04:45 UTC (12:45am EST)

Starting about an hour ago, Bz dipped back south. Bt is still very strong, so this may be enough to produce some more pillars in the mid-latitudes. Aurora hunters will still probably need long exposures to get a good view. KP=5.33 (G1) in 20 minutes. Here’s a look at the boulder KP 3-hour averages so far – notice that storming didn’t technically reach G2 levels during the last substorm:

Two periods of storming so far in this solar storm
Two periods of storming so far in this solar storm

Update 8/2 23:00 UTC (7:00pm EST)

G2 storming is now predicted by the Wing-KP model. KP=6 shortly! This is almost exactly when the initial forecasts indicated we might see G2 storming. The strong solar wind hasn’t really picked up yet – wind speeds have only just touched 450 km/s.

Wing-KP shows KP=6 soon on August 2
Wing-KP shows KP=6 soon on August 2

Bz shifted to the north, so NLN is expecting this storm to be short lived. Good luck. Hopefully there will be more later tonight

Update 8/2 22:30 UTC (6:30pm EST)

First aurora picture of the night! This tweet shows a photo from Denmark by Twitter follower @ADphotography24

Update 8/2 21:45 UTC (5:45pm EST)

Around 8:00am UTC Bz made a decisive shift to the south. This should be good for aurora hunters and we expect to see some pictures coming in soon. We also expect the wing-KP models to reflect this aurora within the next 2-3 hrs.

Update 8/2 06:30 UPC (2:30am EST)

The first hints of the expected solar storm from the filament eruption appear to be arriving. Solar wind, density and Bt/Bz all reflected the shocks impact. The shock was weaker than expected, but also a little earlier than expected. We’re not really expecting any aurora yet, still plenty of hours ahead for a show.

Initial CME arrives around 04:00 UTC on August 2
Initial CME arrives around 04:00 UTC on August 2

June 4-5 G2 Storm Live Blog

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Northern Lights Now – NLN will be live blogging tonight’s expected G2 solar storm, please come back often for updates.

Update 11:00am UTC 6/6/2016 (7:00am EST)

Sure enough! There was another substorm left in this active period. KP reached G2 levels in the 3-6am UTC period, while the short term KP forecast actually briefly reaching G3. Northern lights reports streamed in from western New York through the upper Midwest on Twitter. As of this update, KP is still in the G1 range, but the Bz shifted decisively north, so it may be done for good now. Thanks live tracking this storm with NLN! Here are some of those Twitter posts:

Update 2:00am UTC 6/6/2016 (11:00pm EST)

The storm is winding down. Solar winds are still high, but proton density and Bt have decreased. Bz is not making sustained or deep moves in the negative direction. The storm had one brief period where the short term forecast reached G2 levels, but the max three-hour activity was measured at G1. The timing of this storm also did not align well for aurora hunters as there were clouds in most places that would have been visible. New Zealand was the big winner. There still a chance a good substorm could produce Aurora for hunters in the midwest or Central Canada over the next couple hours, but it is becoming less and less likely. Here’s the graph of storm activity from this storm showing 4 periods of G1:

June 4-6 storm recap shows 4 periods of G1 storming.
June 4-6 storm recap shows 4 periods of G1 storming.

Update 9:00pm UTC 6/5/2016 (6:00pm EST)

The storm is still stirring! The Wing-KP model is now predicting KP=5.67 in 50 minutes. Solar wind speed are over 600 km/s and Bz is moving in and out of negative. If there is a sustained negative Bz, KP could shoot up into the G3 storming range. Best bet for aurora is Europe south of the “land of the midnight Sun.” Iceland won’t be getting dark enough for a show tonight, and it’s cloudy on the American East coast. If the storm lasts long enough hunters in the western great lakes and into the plains could get lucky.

G2 aurora storming predicted in 54 minutes.
G2 aurora storming predicted in 54 minutes.
Solar Wind speed has now exceeded 600 km/s
Solar Wind speed has now exceeded 600 km/s

Update 2:30pm UTC 6/5/2016 (11:30am EST)

Short term predictions now include KP=5.00 or G1 storming! Expect more aurora reports from the southern hemisphere soon!

G1 storming begins!
G1 storming begins!

Update 2:00pm UTC 6/5/2016 (11:00am EST)

Solar wind speeds are now reading above 500 km/s, the storm is arriving. It is arriving about 12 hours later than initially forecast, but it’s here. The timing is such that most of North America missed the first part of this storm. Our Kiwi and Aussie friends should get a good show though. If the storm continues on long enough, European aurora hunters may also get a treat. There have been a couple early Aurora reports from NZ. Here’s a back of cam picture of the beginning of the storm from Ian Griffin:

Update 10:00am UTC 6/5/2016 (6:00am EST)

Not much to report yet. Wind speeds over the lat hour climbed to as high as 390 km/s, but are still well off of the predicted speeds. In a hint of good news, Bz has been negative over the last hour. That negative Bz has helped push the predicted Bz to 4.33, it’s highest level of the storm. This shows that even with weak wind, a strong Bt and proton density plus a favorable Bz can be enough for aurora hunters. Stay tuned, the next 12 hours could be interesting.

predicted KP jumps to 4.33, the highest so far of this storm, due to negative Bz
predicted KP jumps to 4.33, the highest so far of this storm, due to negative Bz

Update 2:30am UTC 6/5/2016 (10:30pm EST)

Over the last three hours, the solar wind environment has started to reflect the influence of the coronal hole. Density has increased from around 3-4 parts per cubic centimeter to over 10, with spikes to 40+. The solar wind speed has increased slightly from ~300 km/s to 325-350 km/s. Over the next several hours, we’re expecting solar wind to gradually increase, it could reach as high as 600 km/s. Once the wind speed is higher, watch the Bz. If it shifts south, aurora should follow soon after. Here’s a graphic of the solar wind environment from the SWPC, note the distinct change in density profile and wind speed (labeled radial speed) around 23:00:

24 hours solar wind data from SWPC shows enhancement beginning around 23:00
24 hours solar wind data from SWPC shows enhancement beginning around 23:00

Update 9:30pm UTC 6/4/2016 (5:30pm EST)

The first hints that the solar storm may be arriving are showing in the ACE solar wind data. Proton density has slowly increased to 5 p/cm3 over the last 45 minutes, and took a sudden jump to 11 p/cm3 in the last 5 minutes. This was accompanied by an increase in Bt to 5 nT. It will still be several hours before there is any real chance for Aurora, but this is the first hint that activity may be picking up.

Short Spike in proton density is the first hint that expected activity may be arriving.
Short Spike in proton density is the first hint that expected activity may be arriving.

Aurora on April 2nd and 3rd Live Blog

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Northern Lights Now – SWPC has upgraded the storm watch posted yesterday from G1 to G2 and extended the watch an additional 24 hours. NLN will be live blogging this storm and sharing updates as they are available – check back often over the next 36 hours for updates.

Tim Peake on the International Space Station:


Update 3:00 AM UTC 4/3/2016 (11:00pm EST -4/2/2016)

Some lights over Rovaniemi, Finland from All About Lapland:

In Tasmania, there was a hint of the Southern Lights on the horizon:

Update 10:00 PM UTC 4/3/2016 (6:00pm EST)

This will be the last post for this period of geomagnetic activity, unless the storm surprises and kicks back up again. In the end this storm was limited to a single period where KP reached the G2 threshold and a second period where it peaked at G1 over a total of nine hours. This isn’t far off from what we originally predicted. The storm arrived about 12 hours later than the preditions. The peak wind speeds meaured was 548km/s, almost exactly as forecast, but the 5 minute average measured speed never passed 520km/s.

There were some people who caught a glimpse of the Aurora, thank you for sharing!

This storm may be wrapping up. Solar wind speeds have already started decreases and are now below 500km/s. KP has also been slowing decreasing after about 4 hours of G1 storming from 18:00 to 22:00 UTC. Once the official data from Boulder is available, we should get confirmation that there was a brief period of G2 storming as well.

The timing and clouds mean not many people got to see aurora during this storm. Astronaughts on the International Space Station should have seen some of the show, and there’s a chance that hunters in New Zealand and possible around the great lakes may have seen some of the show. Please share your pictures with us on Twitter and follow NLN (@northLightAlert) too if you aren’t already.

Update 8:45pm UTC 4/2/2016 (5:45pm EST)

Boulder is reporting one period of G1 storming so far. There has been a brief period where the wing KP was predicting G2 storming (at 6.33 – the peak in the chart below). This storm is coming in just about as expected. It was a little late, which indicates that the solar wind was a little slower than the models, and with the wind a little slower the max KP is a little lower. But the slower wind speed also means the storm could last a little longer than the original forecast. If Bz stays negative there could be an extended period of G1 activity giving North America a show tonight.

Boulder is reporting one period of G1 storming so far tonight
Boulder is reporting one period of G1 storming so far tonight
NLN's inforgraphic showing wing KP and Ovation aurora oval from tonight
NLN’s inforgraphic showing wing KP and Ovation aurora oval from tonight

Most of the normal aurora hot spots in Europe were clouded in tonight, so there weren’t many northern lights reports. The skies look much clearer over North America tonight. If the storm continues for several more hours (very possible), American and Canadian aurora hunter should be rewarded.

Clear Skies perdicted across most of North America this evening
Clear Skies perdicted across most of North America this evening

Update 4:00pm UTC 4/2/2016 (1:00pm EST)

The solarstorm is now arriving. Solar wind speeds have increased to above 450 km/s. This storm appears to be arriving with the Bz oriented South. This is great news for aurora hunters. If Bz stays negative (south) over the next several hours, KP shold increase into the G1 and Possbly G2 range.

Data (visualizations from spaceweatherlive) showing solarstorm arriving.
Data (visualizations from spaceweatherlive) showing solarstorm arriving.

Update 11:00am UTC 4/2/2016 (7:00am EST)

The expected solar wind has not arrived at Earth yet. In the last hour there have been hints that it may be about to be detected. The Solar Wind Density has increased and is currently registering above 10 parts per cubic centimeter after increasing from the ambient 1-4 p/cm3. This is sometimes a short-term leading indicator that anticipates the increase in wind speed. It is often the case that space weather predictions miss by +/-6 hours, so this is not unexpected.

Solar wind  density has increased to above 7 p/cm3 in the last half hour
Solar wind density has increased to above 7 p/cm3 in the last half hour

The delay in the arrival of the expected activity hints that it may be weaker than initially anticipated, but also that it may last longer than initially anticipated. Aurora hunters are now in wait-and-see mode for this storm.

Update 4:00am UTC 4/2/2016 (Midnight EST)

SWPC has upgraded the expected storm from G1 to G2, they are now expecting a period of Moderate storming in the second 3 hour block after the storm arrives. The watch period has also been extended into April 3rd. Here’s the snapshot of the auroracast forecast for today and tomorrow.

AuroraCast shows G2 storming on 4/2 and G1 storming on 4/3
AuroraCast shows G2 storming on 4/2 and G1 storming on 4/3

Solar wind is still at ambient levels at between 330 and 350 km/s. It should pick up over the next several hours.

Happy Hunting!