Late October 2017 Aurora Strom Live Blog

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Northern Lights Now – Space weather forecasters are predicting 3 days of active aurora conditions. NLN is activating the live blog. We’ll aim to update a couple times a day, or as warranted, so check back often

NLN Live Blog Update – Fri, Sept 27, 02:15 UTC (23:15 EST 10/26)
Live blog time: 74h 15m

We’re calling it. This storm is over. Solar wind speeds have dropped back below 500 km/s. This storm netted two periods of G1 storming. Thank you for tacking it with NLN!

NLN Live Blog Update – Thurs, Sept 26, 13:30 UTC (10:30 EST 10/26)
Live blog time: 61h 30m

The Magnetosphere is now starting to rattle a bit. Bz has sustatined a negative orientation for over 6 hours. This is conducive to aurora and geomagnetic activity. KP has been between 4 and 5 for several hours now. If this continues, G1 is almost certain and G2 is possible.

In the DSCOVR wind chart below, the red bar shows that Bz has been negative for over 6 hours, the two blue bars show that wind speeds have been > 500 km/s for over 48 hours.

Solar wind now conducive to G1 storming
Solar wind now conducive to G1 storming

NLN Live Blog Update – Thurs, Sept 26, 03:15 UTC (23:15 EST 10/25)
Live blog time: 51h 15m

It has been quiet today on the aurora front. Total magnetic fields (Bt) have stayed relatively weak for ranging between 4 and 6 nT, and Bz has been variable. With no prolonged periods of strong Bz south, there has been very little aurora activity. There was one period of G1 storming today and no periods of G2.

Solar wind speeds are still elevated at around 600 km/s and there could be a prolonged period of Bz south at any point, but with each passing hour it is less likely. Today’s busted storm watch goes to show that we need more data from additional satellites to do a really good job of forecasting geomagnetic activity.

Despite the low activity, some aurora reports for the higher latitudes are coming in:

NLN Live Blog Update – Tue, Sept 25, 03:15 UTC (23:15 EST 10/24)
Live blog time: 27h 15m

Solar winds have continued to increase over the last 6 hours and are now in the 600 km/s range with a brief peak above 625 km/s. There was a period of about an hour where Bz was predominantly negative and it produced a period of G1 storming. So far this nearly exactly confirms the posted watch for 10/24. Wing KP models also registered a short term prediction of KP=5.67 for around 02:00 UTC, but this was not measured on the ground. Here is the chart of the measured KPs so far for this storm:

Recorded KP values from boulder confirm the 10/24 G1 storm watch
Recorded KP values from boulder confirm the 10/24 G1 storm watch

NLN Live Blog Update – Tue, Sept 24, 16:15 UTC (12:15 EST 10/24)
Live blog time: 16h 15m

Earth has now entered the high speed wind stream. Solar wind speeds are now registering around 525 km/s after being around 350 km/s just 6 hours ago. Those should increase to over 600 km/s in the next 12 hours. Geomag activity is already responding, KP values have increased to just above 4. There are still several hours before it will reach G1 storming levels.

KPSlowlyClimbing_20171024

Solar wind speeds have increased from around 350 km/s to over 525 km/s
Solar wind speeds have increased from around 350 km/s to over 525 km/s
KP values climbing over 4
KP values climbing over 4

NLN Live Blog Update – Tue, Sept 24, 11:15 UTC (07:15 EST 10/24)
Live blog time: 11h 15m

Have you been watching the density after the last update? It has increase to around 40 p/cm3. It’s very likely solar wind speeds will increase in the near future.

NLN Live Blog Update – Tue, Sept 24, 04:00 UTC (00:00 EST 10/24)
Live blog time: 04h 00m

No sign of the expected solar wind yet. The first signs it is on it’s way will be that the proton density rises as earth enters the co-rotating interaction region (CIR). That sounds uber-technical, but all it means is that there are two streams of solar wind moving towards earth at different speeds. At the place they meet, there is a region where they interact. It means we know there is a period of fast solar wind coming when the proton density measured at DSCOVR increases. For now, Density is at nearly background levels around 5 p/cm3

Proton density is still at nearly background levels.
Proton density is still at nearly background levels.

NLN Live Blog Update – Tue, Sept 24, 00:00 UTC (20:00 EST 10/23)
Live blog time: 00h 00m

The NLN live blog is activated. We’ll bring news and updates about the predicted solar storm over the next 3-4 days. Here is the current three day auroraCast clock showing G1 predictions on Oct 24 and 26 sandwiching G2 forecasts for OCt 25.

NLN AuroraCast shows three days of G1 and G2 activity from October 24-26
NLN AuroraCast shows three days of G1 and G2 activity from October 24-26