SWPC Issues 48 Hour G1 Aurora Storm Watch Oct 11 and 12

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Northern Lights Now – The Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder Colorado has issued a G1 storm watch for October 11-12 indicating the potential for KP values at or above 5 and active aurora. This is due to the expected high speed solar wind coming from a large northern hemisphere coronal hole.

Northern Hemisphere coronal hole pointed towards Earth on October 7th
Northern Hemisphere coronal hole pointed towards Earth on October 7th

Models, such as the WSA-Enlil below, are predicting that the first phase of the storm should start midday on Tuesday as plasma densities rise to around 15 p/cm3. 6-12 hours later, solar wind should pick up and may reach 550 km/s. The coronal hole covers a large area longitudinally, so once the wind speed readings increase, they may remain elevated for over three days. It would not be surprising to see the G1 watch extended into a third day.

WSA-Enlil model shows density rising, then solar wind speeds increasing to around 550 km/s
WSA-Enlil model shows density rising, then solar wind speeds increasing to around 550 km/s

As of this writing, the periods of KP=5 and above are predicted to start midday on Oct 11 and continue on and off throughout Oct 12.

KP predicted to reach G1 levels on Oct 11 and Oct 12
KP predicted to reach G1 levels on Oct 11 and Oct 12

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