Sept 6-10 Aurora G3 Storm 2017 – NLN Live Blog pt2

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Northern Lights Now – A G3 storm watch is in effect for September 6 and 7 thanks to a solar storm launched from an Earth-directed solar eruption at active region 2673. Aurora hunters are expecting a mid-latitude display. Northern Lights Now will keep you up to date on the latest information in this live blog. We’ll be updating regularly, so come back often.

This is part 2 of 3, check out the other links:
Live Blog Sept 6-10 Part 1
Live Blog Sept 6-10 Part 3

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 7, 21:00 UTC (17:00 EST 9/7)
Live blog time: 45h 00m

BOOM! X9 flare CME interplanetary shock has arrived and it is bringing with it a deep negative Bz of -23nT. This is what we’ve been waiting for. Hope it is clear and dark where you are.

Solar Wind Bars show Strong Wind, Bt and neg Bz last 15 minutes.
Solar Wind Bars show Strong Wind, Bt and neg Bz last 15 minutes.
Interplanetary shock prompts major shifts in all wind parameters.
Interplanetary shock prompts major shifts in all wind parameters.

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 7, 21:00 UTC (17:00 EST 9/7)
Live blog time: 45h 00m

Such a roller coaster. Bz shifted back south and ground based magnetometers are responding. Aurora could be dancing now.

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 7, 20:00 UTC (16:00 EST 9/7)
Live blog time: 44h 00m

Bz switched back north. Any storming that started will end. Back to wait and see mode for the X9.33 flare CME arrival. This is why it is so rewarding when you do actually get to see an Aurora display.

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 7, 18:15 UTC (14:15 EST 9/7)
Live blog time: 42h 15m

Bz has stayed negative since the last update. Aurora reports should start coming in from across Northern Europe as sunset arrives. WingKP is currently underestimating – KP is likely already at G1 levels. It isn’t unusual for KP to under-estimate at the beginning of storms due to the fact it is a neural net and the input is only added once every three house. Ovation is a better guide at the moment.

Ovation shows there is likely G1 storming going on now.
Ovation shows there is likely G1 storming going on now.

Full disclosure – the data doesn’t 100% line up. We’d expect ground based magnetometers to be jumping around at this point. There is an outside possibility there is bad data coming from L1 leading us astray. Proof will be in the pudding when aurora images come in.

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 7, 15:30 UTC (11:30 EST 9/7)
Live blog time: 39h 30m

Bz just shifted sharply to the south. Time to watch the KP – should reach G1 shortly. It’s likely that Austrailia, NZ will see aurora before WingKP model reacts to this shift.

KP shifts decisively to the south.
KP shifts decisively to the south.

There was also another X class flare just now reaching X1.39

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 7, 12:00 UTC (08:00 EST 9/7)
Live blog time: 36h 00m

36 hours into the storm watch period and KP=4 is the highest level of activity recorded so far. This is a good time to remind fellow aurora hunters that there is not yet a way to forecast the orientation of the magnetic fields in a solarstorm until it arrives. Forecasters can estimate the time of arrival and the magnitude of the storm at arrival, but if the orientation is not conducive to aurora, there won’t be a show. The first Phase of this storm was like that, it arrived within 9 hours of prediction and as strong solar wind and disturbed Bt, but Bz did not show any sustained negative orientation.

SWPC Boulder reported geomagnetic activity maxes at KP=4 so far.
SWPC Boulder reported geomagnetic activity maxes at KP=4 so far.

In the next 8-12 hours, watch for a surprise Bz negative period and for EPAM to start rising again in advance of the arrival of the CME from the X9.33 flare.

quick mea culpa: in the last update I posted the EPAM, it was late and the end of an active day of forecasting. It did not actually show EPAM still rising, I didn’t notice that the data had cut off from the chart about 4 hours from before the post until this morning. Sorry about that, and thanks to the eagle eyed readers who pointed it out!

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 7, 04:30 UTC (00:30 EST 9/7)
Live blog time: 28h 20m

It’s NLN’s last live blog update for tonight, check back tomorrow. Leaving you with this image from EPAM. The fact that EPAM data are still up and to the right indicates that there is another CME arrival on it’s way. This aligns with the initial post 7:15am ET post yesterday morning – “Third, there may be a second shock and a new phase of Bz as a second, slower, CME arrives.”

EPAM is up and to the right indicating another incoming CME
EPAM is up and to the right indicating another incoming CME

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 7, 04:30 UTC (00:30 EST 9/7)
Live blog time: 28h 20m

Quick update, possibly the last this evening. Bz has been mostly north over the last two hours, but it has dipped south again for the last 20 minutes. This may indicate we’re entering the next phase of the storm. If this keeps up, KP could start to climb. Hard to predict, just have to keep an eye on the data:

Ba has dipped south again over the last 20 minutes.
Ba has dipped south again over the last 20 minutes.

If you get nice photos that you are willing to share please post them to Twitter and tag the NLN account and/or post to Facebook and tag our FB page. Also – if you aren’t already, please follow and like those accounts!

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 7, 02:00 UTC (22:00 EST 9/6)
Live blog time: 26h 00m

First round of negative Bz is happening. Wing KP responds by predicting KP=5 in 54 minutes. If Bz stays south another 10 or 15 mins, it will be go time for people in G1 range.

Bz now showing negative reading. KP should jump soon.
Bz now showing negative reading. KP should jump soon.

The first reports we’ve seen of Aurora came in from iceland with photos by long time follower and aurora hunter Muhammed Kizilkaya as the IP shock arrived at Earth about 2 and a half hours ago

NLN Live Blog Update – Wed, Sept 7, 00:45 UTC (20:45 EST 9/6)
Live blog time: 24h 45m

The CME arrived about 90 minutes ago. There may have been a first round of aurora with the initial shock, but the Bz has been positive since the arrival. In order for there to be a big show of northern lights the Bz will have to shift to negative. All solar wind metrics are strong at the moment Bt=15.35 nT, Density=15.1 p/cm3, Solar wind around 600km/s.

CME arrives at DSCOVR with a Interplanetary Shock.
CME arrives at DSCOVR with a Interplanetary Shock.