G1 Storm Watch Posted for November 8

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Update 0330 GMT – 10:30pm EST

It appears the CME missed Earth, probably to the West and North. It is unlikely at this point there will be any aurora storming tonight.

Original Post
Northern Lights Now – The CME from the November 5 filament eruption is now expected to arrive at Earth late on Nov 8 and produce G1 storming. SWPC has issued a G1 geomagnetic storm watch. This forecast is lower confidence and more variable than usual. The current predicted timing shows that the period of KP=5 or higher is likely to happen at the end of the UTC day (or just after sunset on the US East coast and around midnight in Europe)

NLN AuroraCast shows the aurora forecast for potential G1 storming at the end of Nov 8 UTC
NLN AuroraCast shows the aurora forecast for potential G1 storming at the end of Nov 8 UTC

This forecast is low confidence because the majority of the CME is likely to go to the north and west of Earth. If Earth is hit, it will likely be a glancing blow. Further, it is impossible to predict the orientation of the cloud of plasma. If it happens to be oriented with a strong Bz south component, the KP could reach values higher the G1. If it is oriented with a strong positive Bz component, it’s unlikely KP values will read higher than 3 or 4. This is a classic wait-and-see storm.

Here is the WSA-Enlil model output from SWPC. It shows that when the CME arrives, it is likely to have a high proton density. This high proton density, at the same time as increasing solar wind are the primary motivations for issuing the G1 watch (click image for full size):

WSA-Enlil model shows CME arriving midday on Nov 8
WSA-Enlil model shows CME arriving midday on Nov 8

Happy Hunting!

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