G1 Aurora Predicted for October 13 and 14

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Northern Lights Now – A small filament eruption on October 9 released a CME that is approaching Earth. It should arrive late on the 13th or early on the 14th. This CME plus a high speed stream will combine to induce aurora storming that may reach G1 levels. The means that KP is predicted to be at or above 5.00. Here is the current predicted timing from SWPC:

6 hours of G1 level storming predicted on October 13 and 14 in the AuroraCast infographic
6 hours of G1 level storming predicted on October 13 and 14 in the AuroraCast infographic

This storm is lower confidence that some other recent storms. The filament eruption was at a very northern solar latitude. Normally an eruption at this latitude would be well north of the Earth-Sun line. This one may also be off the Earth Sun line. At around the same time as the filament eruption, shown below, there was also a back-sided eruption. The partial halo CME that was visible from the back-sided eruption may have confused the models as they project the speed and path of the earth-facing CME. This will be a “wait and see” type storm. Here’s that filament eruption in AIA 193 SDO imagery:

Filament eruption is visible in this AIA 193 SDO imagery in he northeast quadrent of the solar disk
Filament eruption is visible in this AIA 193 SDO imagery in he northeast quadrent of the solar disk

Happy Hunting!