Aurora Activity Predicted for July 7

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Northern Lights Now – Solar activity has been low over the last month, but a large coronal hole combined with some activity on it’s periphery is prompting SWPC to issue a G1 geomagnetic storm watch for July 7.

UPDATE 1:30AM GMT 7/7 (9:30PM EST July 6)

SWPC has updated today’s watch to include 7/8. We expected this was possible based on the size and location of the coronal hole. Keep an eye on the solar wind speed. Once it increases watch the Bz. If it points south, there’s a good chance for a show. The current predicted times for the storm are late on 7/7 and early on 7/8

Storm watch is extended to 7/8 as G1 periods are now expected on both 7/7 and 7/8
Storm watch is extended to 7/8 as G1 periods are now expected on both 7/7 and 7/8

Original Post

There have only been about 20 sunspots recorded in June, and none so far in July. Without sunspots, solar flares and eruptions are less likely. This leave coronal holes and filament eruptions as the remaining potential sources for northern lights activity. Currently there is a large coronal hole pointed towards Earth:

Large coronal hole (#93) pointed towards Earth on  July 6.
Large coronal hole (#93) pointed towards Earth on July 6.

This coronal hole should start to impact Earth midday July 6 with enhanced solar wind speeds through Early on July 7. The official forecast from SWPC shows only one period of G1 activity around 18:00GMT, but there’s reason to believe this could actually product more activity than that. First, these forecasts often miss by 6-12 hours, so the active period could happen any time during the day on the 6th or early on the 7th. Second, there was a minor filament eruption to the west of the coronal hole on the 4th of July. Check out the video linked in @haloCME’s post.

In the video, the dimming indicates a potential eruption. If there is eruptive material from this features, it could excenuate any activity associated with the high speed wind.

Happy Hunting!