G1 Aurora Watch For Wednesday February 17, 2016 Posted

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Northern Lights Now – A second G1 geomagnetic storm watch for the week is posted for Wednesday offering the possibility of KP=5 or more. The increase in aurora borealis activity is expected as the high speed solar wind arrives from the northern extension of a southern pole coronal hole. Wind speed from the coronal hole approached 600km/s as it passed the STEREO-Ahead satellite, and it appears to have extended slightly northwards since the pass. It is possible wind speeds could reach 660 km/s at Earth by Wednesday. Here’s an image of the coronal hole when it was directed towards Earth:

High speed winds from coronal hole may impact Earth on 2/17
High speed winds from coronal hole may impact Earth on 2/17

The current forecast from SWPC calls for a 6 hour period of potential KP=5+ starting around 3:00PM GMT. Here is NLN’s AuroraCast inforgraphic of the expected Max KP’s

AuroraCast shows the expected period of KP=5 from 3pm to 9pm GMT
AuroraCast shows the expected period of KP=5 from 3pm to 9pm GMT

As always – these watches have a +/- of about 6 hours, and about a 50% accuracy, so hope for the best and plan for the worst.

Happy Hunting

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