NLN Aurora Brief – November 3, 2015

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Aurora Brief Volume 3, Number 1 of 7
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Aurora Storm Update

The anticipated high wind stream associated with the coronal hole are later that expected. NOAA forecaster had been anticipated to arrive mid-day on November second but as of this writing, only the leading edges of the wind stream have arrived at the ACE satellites. They are still predicting that when the winds arrive they will be in excess of 800 km/s and when they do they could last as long as 12-18 hours. This should be strong enough and long enough for an extended period of northern lights activity.

Current today/tomorrow aurora forecast from NLN 3-day forecast
Current today/tomorrow aurora forecast from NLN 3-day forecast

Earlier on November 2nd, there was a shock passage measured at ace satellites with a very typical pattern. First the Bt increased from around 3-4 to 10 nT, next the proton density increased by almost 8 fold in three waves. On the third wave, the solar wind speed increased from 325 km/s to 410 km/s. Shortly after this (though not captured in the image below), the Bz shifted south. This was a short lived wave, but when the main high speed stream arrives, it may have a similar pattern. Graphs in this image are form SpaceWeatherLive

Space weather data snapshot from just after initial shock arrives at ACE satellites
Space weather data snapshot from just after initial shock arrives at ACE satellites

On the Sun:

Active Region 2443 has regained it’s delta spot and is not classified Beta-Delta. It produced several flares over the period. One flare late in the Nov 1 period laucnhed a CME that was determined to be south and East (in front) of the Earth-Sun line. This region is now in the Earth strike zone and has potential to produce more flares and CME eruptions.

AR 2443 in SDO colorized magnetogram has gained a delta spot and has flaring potential
AR 2443 in SDO colorized magnetogram has gained a delta spot and has flaring potential

Happy Hunting