NLN Aurora Brief – October 28, 2015

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Aurora Brief Number 9 of 14
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Today on the Sun:

One new active region was numbered today, active region 2441 developed its first two spots and was given a beta classification. The biggest flare was a another slow rising long duration C3 flare from beyond the Southwest limb. It had a similar x-ray profile to yesterday’s C2 flare. Today’s flare also produced a CME but it was directed well to the west of Earth (behind) and is not expected to impact Earth’s magnetosphere.

The three day aurora forecast is now reflecting a slight rise in KP towards the end of the period. This is due to the anticipated arrival of the solar sector boundary. When the solar sector boundary crosses, the Bt component will increase. If that coincides with a negative Bz component, high latitude aurora hunters may be rewarded. This image shows the WSA-Enlil model (how to read the WSA-Enlil output) on Day 3 as the solar sector boundary approaches.

WSA Enlil model output showing Solar Sector Boundary Crossing Oct 30, 2015
WSA Enlil model output showing Solar Sector Boundary Crossing Oct 30, 2015

Notice also on the image above that the plasma density is predicted to continue to increase through the first two days of November. NLN will be covering this increase in activity over the next week.

This Day in 2003:

Active region 486 released one of the largest flares in recent memory on this day in 2003. The X17 flare generated a large fast moving CME that headed directly towards Earth. It arrived at Earth, after traveling 150 million kilometers, just 19 hours later. Almost immediately after the flare, a proton event greater than 100MeV and was measured peaking at 186pfu. This is an enormous flare, here’s an image from SDO at the time of the flare.

Huge X17 flare from Active Region 486 - Oct 28, 2003
Huge X17 flare from Active Region 486 – Oct 28, 2003

On Earth, this will start a period of Major storming that will last through Halloween and will become known as the “2003 Halloween Aurora Strom”

Happy Hunting!

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