X1.6 Flare from Nov. 7 2014 leads to G2 Geomagnetic Storm Watch

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SWPC has posted a G2 Geomagnetic Storm watch for November 10th, 2014, and a G1 Storm watch for November 11, 2014. This means there is the potential to see Aurora further south than normal. KP values could go as high as KP=6 tonight, and KP=5 tomorrow. Here is the alerts graphic from Space Weather Prediction Center:

SWPC has predicted G2 geomagnetic storming on 11/10/14 and G1 storming on 11/11/14
SWPC has predicted G2 geomagnetic storming on 11/10/14 and G1 storming on 11/11/14

Source:

The potential geomagnetic activity watch is due to the predicted arrival of the CME from the X1.6 Flare launched from Active Region 2205 (Beta-Delta-Gamma) at 17:26 UTC (about Noon Eastern Time). There was a clear CME visible in LASCO imagery, but bulk of the material was sent North and East of the Earth-Sun line. If the CME does arrive at Earth, it will likely be a glancing blow. But even a glancing blow from an X-Class flare can produce exciting Northen Lights. The CME from Lasco Imagery:

LASCO imagery shows the CME is directed mostly North and East
LASCO imagery shows the CME is directed mostly North and East

Timing:

As always, it is hard to predict the exact timing of the arrival of a CME. The current WSA-Enlil model is showing an arrival of the peak around 5:00AM EST. Depending on the polarity of the plasma, we may see the KP increase in advance of the arrival or trailing the arrival. Again, we’ll know once it starts to arrive. The key indicator is the Bz component of the IMF (Interplanetary Magnetic Field), watch for it to shift negative at Space Weather Live, the longer it is negative, and the deeper negative it is, the more likely we are to see a show.

WSA-Enlil shows arrival of CME shock at roughly 5:00am EST on Nov 10, 2014
WSA-Enlil shows arrival of CME shock at roughly 5:00am EST on Nov 10, 2014

Caveats:

This is a particularly tricky forecast this time. It is a glancing blow and the models have been very sensitive to the interpretation of the LASCO imagery. We’ll keep our fingers crossed for this one. You can watch live KP data at http://northernlightsnow.com/current-kp-realtime/ and follow @northLightAlert on twitter for updates.

Happy Hunting!